Modeling the Overalternating Bias with an Asymmetric Entropy Measure

Abstract

Psychological research has found that human perception of randomness is biased. In particular, people consistently show the overalternating bias: they rate binary sequences of symbols (such as Heads and Tails in coin flipping) with an excess of alternation as more random than prescribed by the normative criteria of Shannon's entropy. Within data mining for medical applications, Marcellin proposed an asymmetric measure of entropy that can be ideal to account for such bias and to quantify subjective randomness. We fitted Marcellin's entropy and Renyi's entropy (a generalized form of uncertainty measure comprising many different kinds of entropies) to experimental data found in the literature with the Differential Evolution algorithm. We observed a better fit for Marcellin's entropy compared to Renyi's entropy. The fitted asymmetric entropy measure also showed good predictive properties when applied to different datasets of randomness-related tasks. We concluded that Marcellin's entropy can be a parsimonious and effective measure of subjective randomness that can be useful in psychological research about randomness perception.

Generating randomness: making the most out of disordering a false order into a real one

“…The asymmetric measure of entropy has been suggested as an explanation for human biases and as a way to quantify subjective randomness [112]. A fitted asymmetric entropy measure was predictive when applied to different datasets of randomness-related tasks.…”