Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry

Huszár, Peter; Teyssèdre, H.; Michou, Martine; Voldoire, Aurore; Olivié, Dirk; Saint‐Martin, David; Cariolle, D.; Sénési, Stéphane; Mélia, David Salas y; Alias, Antoinette; Karcher, F.; Ricaud, Philippe; Halenka, Tomáš

doi:10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013

Cited by 20 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…The goal is to separate the signal information from the noise. However, there is no a priori knowledge of how many members are required so we decided, on the basis of our computer and time resources, to run ensembles with three members, similarly to Olivie et al (2012) and Huszar et al (2013), who looked at transport emission impacts on climate. We have chosen the ensemble mode rather than adopting the scaling approach which is based on the assumption that the forcing (emission in this case) and signal are linearly connected.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The regional impact of urban emissions on climate over central Europe: present and future emission perspectives

et al. 2016

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Abstract. The regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled to the chemistry transport model CAMx, including twoway interactions, to evaluate the regional impact of urban emission from central European cities on climate for presentday (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) and future (2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054)(2055) periods, and for the future one only emission changes are considered. Short-lived non-CO 2 emissions are considered and, for the future impact, only the emission changes are accounted for (the climate is kept "fixed"). The urban impact on climate is calculated with the annihilation approach in which two experiments are performed: one with all emissions included and one without urban emissions. The radiative impacts of non-CO 2 primary and secondary formed pollutants are considered, namely ozone (O 3 ), sulfates (PSO 4 ), nitrates (PNO 3 ), primary organic aerosol and primary elementary carbon (POA and PEC).The validation of the modelling system is limited to key climate parameters, near-surface temperature and precipitation. It shows that the model, in general, underestimates temperature and overestimates precipitation. We attribute this behaviour to an excess of cloudiness/water vapour present in the model atmosphere as a consequence of overpredicted evaporation from the surface.The impact on climate is characterised by statistically significant cooling of up to −0.02 and −0.04 K in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA), mainly over cities. We found that the main contributors to the cooling are the direct and indirect effects of the aerosols, while the ozone titration, calculated especially for DJF, plays rather a minor role. In accordance with the vertical extent of the urban-emission-induced aerosol perturbation, cooling dominates the first few model layers up to about 150 m in DJF and 1000 m in JJA. We found a clear diurnal cycle of the radiative impacts with maximum cooling just after noon (JJA) or later in afternoon (DJF). Furthermore, statistically significant decreases of surface radiation are modelled in accordance with the temperature decrease. The impact on the boundary layer height is small but statistically significant and decreases by 1 and 6 m in DJF and JJA respectively. We did not find any statistically significant impact on precipitation and wind speed. Regarding future emissions, the impacts are, in general, smaller as a consequence of smaller emissions, resulting in smaller urban-induced chemical perturbations.In overall, the study suggest that the non-CO 2 emissions play rather a minor role in modulating regional climate over central Europe. Much more important is the direct climate impact of urban surfaces via the urban canopy meteorological effects as we showed earlier.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The regional impact of urban emissions on climate over central Europe: present and future emission perspectives

et al. 2016

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“…This justifies the 100 % emission perturbation approach instead of a smaller perturbation introduced to maintain linearity. A similar approach was used recently for aviation emission impact (Huszar et al, 2013).…”

Section: The Urban Emissions Impact On Air Qualitymentioning

confidence: 99%

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

2016

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Abstract. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of urban emission from Central European cities on the present-day regional air quality, the regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled with the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions. A series of simulations was carried out for the 2001-2010 period either with all urban emissions included (base case) or without considering urban emissions. Further, the sensitivity of ozone production to urban emissions was examined by performing reduction experiments with −20 % emission perturbation of NO x and/or non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC).The modeling system's air quality related outputs were evaluated using AirBase, and EMEP surface measurements showed reasonable reproduction of the monthly variation for ozone (O 3 ), but the annual cycle of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is more biased. In terms of hourly correlations, values achieved for ozone and NO 2 are 0.5-0.8 and 0.4-0.6, but SO 2 is poorly or not correlated at all with measurements (r around 0.2-0.5). The modeled fine particulates (PM 2.5 ) are usually underestimated, especially in winter, mainly due to underestimation of nitrates and carbonaceous aerosols.European air quality measures were chosen as metrics describing the cities emission impact on regional air pollution. Due to urban emissions, significant ozone titration occurs over cities while over rural areas remote from cities, ozone production is modeled, mainly in terms of number of exceedances and accumulated exceedances over the threshold of 40 ppbv. Urban NO x , SO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions also significantly contribute to concentrations in the cities themselves (up to 50-70 % for NO x and SO 2 , and up to 60 % for PM 2.5 ), but the contribution is large over rural areas as well (10-20 %). Although air pollution over cities is largely determined by the local urban emissions, considerable (often a few tens of %) fraction of the concentration is attributable to other sources from rural areas and minor cities. For the case of Prague (Czech Republic capital), it is further shown that the inter-urban interference between large cities does not play an important role which means that the impact on a chosen city of emissions from all other large cities is very small. At last, it is shown that to achieve significant ozone reduction over cities in central Europe, the emission control strategies have to focus on the reduction of NMVOC, as reducing NO x (due to suppressed titration) often leads to increased O 3 . The influence over rural areas is however always in favor of improved air quality, i.e. both NO x and/or NMVOC reduction ends up in decreased ozone pollution, mainly in terms of exceedances.

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“…The future aviation impacts were investigated by Huszar et al (2013), based on the previous IPCC SRES A1B scenario (Nakicenovic et al, 2000) up to 2100, but only considering gaseous compounds (both CO 2 and non-CO 2 ), which were found to have a small climate impact. Unger et al (2013) discussed the future effects of aviation-induced aerosol, following RCP4.5 for the background combined with several aviation emission scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 2: Aviation

2016

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Abstract. We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications) to simulate the impact of aviation emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare our findings with the results of a previous study with the same model configuration focusing on year 2000 emissions. We also characterize the aviation results in the context of the other transport sectors presented in a companion paper. In spite of a relevant increase in aviation traffic volume and resulting emissions of aerosol (black carbon) and aerosol precursor species (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), the aviation effect on particle mass concentration in 2030 remains quite negligible (on the order of a few ng m −3 ), about 1 order of magnitude less than the increase in concentration due to other emission sources. Due to the relatively small size of the aviation-induced aerosol, however, the increase in particle number concentration is significant in all scenarios (about 1000 cm −3 ), mostly affecting the northern mid-latitudes at typical flight altitudes (7-12 km). This largely contributes to the overall change in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030, which also results in significant climate effects due to aerosol-cloud interactions. Aviation is the only transport sector for which a larger impact on the Earth's radiation budget is simulated in the future: the aviation-induced radiative forcing in 2030 is more than doubled with respect to the year 2000 value of −15 mW m −2 in all scenarios, with a maximum value of −63 mW m −2 simulated for RCP2.6.

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Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry

Cited by 20 publications

References 68 publications

The regional impact of urban emissions on climate over central Europe: present and future emission perspectives

The regional impact of urban emissions on climate over central Europe: present and future emission perspectives

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 2: Aviation

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