Modeling Zika Virus Transmission Dynamics: Parameter Estimates, Disease Characteristics, and Prevention

Rahman, M.Rezaur; Bekele-Maxwell, Kidist; Cates, LeAnna L.; Banks, Harvey Thomas; Vaidya, Naveen K.

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-46218-4

Cited by 17 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…albopictus contains not only Thursday Island, where the species is established, but its presence is also predicted in Brisbane, Cairns, Darwin, Perth, Rockhampton, Sydney, and Townsville, which corroborate Kraemer et al (2015)'s findings [73]. Kucharski et al (2016) and Rahman et al (2019) used a mathematical model to examine the 2013-14 outbreak in the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. They found that ZIKV may exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus with a R 0 ranging from 2.6-4.8 [74], and 2.03-3.20 [75] and that reducing mosquito-to-human contact by at least 60% can reduce the peak prevalence by nearly 10% [75].…”

Section: Plos Neglected Tropical Diseasessupporting

confidence: 77%

“…(2019) used a mathematical model to examine the 2013–14 outbreak in the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. They found that ZIKV may exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus with a R 0 ranging from 2.6–4.8 [ 74 ], and 2.03–3.20 [ 75 ] and that reducing mosquito-to-human contact by at least 60% can reduce the peak prevalence by nearly 10% [ 75 ]. In the event of ZIKV introduction into Australia in the period 1996–2015, our study shows that from an imported infected case, the yearly epidemic potential would have been below one for all UCLs studied, though potentially really close to one in Cairns, Rockhampton, and Thursday Island during the warmer months where Ae .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimation of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of Zika virus in Australia: Risks to blood transfusion safety

et al. 2020

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Background Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have occurred in the Americas and the Pacific involving mosquito-borne and sexual transmission. ZIKV has also emerged as a risk to global blood transfusion safety. Aedes aegypti, a mosquito well established in north and some parts of central and southern Queensland, Australia, transmits ZIKV. Aedes albopictus, another potential ZIKV vector, is a threat to mainland Australia. Since these conditions create the potential for local transmission in Australia and a possible uncertainty in the effectiveness of blood donor risk-mitigation programs, we investigated the possible impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of ZIKV in Australia on local blood transfusion safety. Methodology/Principal findings We estimated 'best-' and 'worst-' case scenarios of monthly reproduction number (R 0) for both transmission pathways of ZIKV from 1996-2015 in 11 urban or regional population centres, by varying epidemiological and entomological estimates. We then estimated the attack rate and subsequent number of infectious people to quantify the ZIKV transfusiontransmission risk using the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool. For all scenarios and with both vector species R 0 was lower than one for ZIKV transmission. However, a higher risk of a sustained outbreak was estimated for Cairns, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, and theoretically in Darwin during the warmest months of the year. The yearly estimation of the risk of transmitting ZIKV infection by blood transfusion remained low through the study period for all locations, with the highest potential risk estimated in Darwin. Conclusions/Significance Given the increasing demand for plasma products in Australia, the current strategy of restricting donors returning from infectious disease outbreak regions to source plasma PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES

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Section: Plos Neglected Tropical Diseasessupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of Zika virus in Australia: Risks to blood transfusion safety

et al. 2020

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“…The uncertainty embedded in the large interval can be minimize fixing in the less effective model parameters. This processes was successfully applied in the previous studies [37] and not violated the significance of data fitting. For this purpose we first compute the sensitivity matrix and the most sensitive parameters are presented in the box diagram (see Figure 3).…”

Section: Confidence Interval Of the Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…The confidence interval for the model parameter can be computed using the sensitivity matrix as described in [34] and used by [37]. The sensitivity matrix (J) for the parameters Θ(θ 1 , θ 2 , ..., θ l ) is defined as…”

Section: Confidence Interval Of the Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of SEAIQR Model with Saturated Type Treatment: A Case Study of Spain COVID-19

Ghosh¹,

Kamrujjaman²,

Ghosh³

2020

Preprint

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Background: Outbreak of the Covid-19 is now an ongoing global health emergency. At the end of December 2019, the first infection was reported in Wuhan and the world did not pay attention to this extremely contaminated disease and plucked to react rapidly. The World is in an vulnerable state in disease spreading, facing a great loss of lives and socio-economic aspects also. That is why we have proposed a potential mathematical model with data analysis to predict and control the outcome of this pandemic. Methods: The model presented the epidemic dynamics of multiple compartments. We collected available online data of Spain. In primary step, we estimated the parameters using either the data analysis or reference papers. Then we did the data fitting analysis in comparison with the outcome of our mathematical results. The results of the system depended not only the parameters also on social consciousness. Results: It is found that disease progression in this model is determined by the basic reproductive ratio, $R_0$, the actual epidemic of $R_0$ and effective $R(t)$ of each day. If $R_0>1$, the number of latently infected individuals grows exponentially; endemic solution is stable while infection rate decays if $R_0<1$. The optimal control theory stated that vaccination and treatment strategies are highly effective for reducing both susceptible and infected population and to increase the recover rate high. In Spain, after state of alarm (quarantine) on 14 March 2020, reported cases increasing for 13 days only and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decline albeit with small fluctuation. Our proposed model approximates that the disease in Spain could be fully under control by after July 2020. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, reduce the death rate and will ensure social-economic stability.

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“…Several mathematical models have been used to understand the transmission dynamics of vector borne diseases [30,31,32,33,19,44,34]. Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models dealing with the ZIKV disease have been proposed and extensively analyzed in past years [42,17,28,34,29,41]. In this study, we present a mathematical model of ZIKV incorporating both vector and direct transmission where infected individuals are structured by time-since infection.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of a Vector-Borne model with direct transmission and age of infection

Tuncer

Giri

2021

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

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In this paper we the study of dynamics of time since infection structured vector born model with the direct transmission. We use standard incidence term to model the new infections. We analyze the corresponding system of partial di erential equation and obtain an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number R0. The diseases-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number is less than one, R0 < 1. Endemic equilibrium exists and is locally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1. The disease will persist at the endemic equilibrium whenever the basic reproduction number is greater than one.

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Modeling Zika Virus Transmission Dynamics: Parameter Estimates, Disease Characteristics, and Prevention

Cited by 17 publications

References 38 publications

Estimation of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of Zika virus in Australia: Risks to blood transfusion safety

Estimation of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of Zika virus in Australia: Risks to blood transfusion safety

Dynamics of SEAIQR Model with Saturated Type Treatment: A Case Study of Spain COVID-19

Dynamics of a Vector-Borne model with direct transmission and age of infection

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