Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Dry Forest Fauna

Abstract

Tropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and those occurring in the insular Caribbean are particularly vulnerable. Climate change represents a significant threat for the Caribbean region and for small islands like Jamaica. Using the Hellshire Hills protected area in Jamaica, a simple model was developed to project future abundance of arthropods and lizards based on current sensitivities to climate variables derived from rainfall and temperature records. The abundances of 20 modelled taxa were predicted more often by rainfall variables than temperature, but both were found to have strong impacts on arthropod and lizard abundance. Most taxa were projected to decrease in abundance by the end of the century under drier and warmer conditions. Where an increase in abundance was projected under a low emissions scenario, this change was reduced or reversed under a high emissions climate change scenario. The validation process showed that, even for a small population, there was reasonable skill in predicting its annual variability. Results of this study show that this simple model can be used to identify the vulnerability of similar sites to the effects of shifting climate and, by extension, their conservation needs.

Tropical Dry Forest Restoration in an Era of Global Change: Ecological and Social Dimensions

“…Three papers in this Special Issue address the sensitivity of TDF flora and fauna to climate across timescales. These papers employ a variety of tools including field experiments [34], collaborative research and transfer of techniques [35], and simulation modelling [36]. Questad et al [34] used a field experiment to explore the restoration of three dryland plant communities in a gradient of rainfall and soil fertility in Hawaii.…”

“…They conclude that weed control activities are necessary to improve restoration outcomes in lower quality habitats. In a zoocentric example, Stephenson et al [36] used modelling to assess arthropod and lizard sensitivities to the impacts of climate change (rainfall and temperature) on TDF fauna in a protected area of Jamaica. In their simulation analyses, they hypothesized that arthropod and lizard abundances are more sensitive to rainfall than temperature variations.…”

Effects of Climatic Change on Potential Distribution of Spogostylum ocyale (Diptera: Bombyliidae) in the Middle East Using Maxent Modelling

“…Each species has a unique combination of tolerances to various climatic factors, and any changes in these factors can cause potential changes in both the ecology and habitat of species and hence their geographical distribution [ 11 , 12 ]. Thus, we need to identify the potential effects of climate change in any area that is particularly vulnerable [ 13 ]. Rising temperatures are one of the most important climatic factors that can induce habitat shifts and/or population declines and are expected to become the primary threat to wildlife survival [ 14 ].…”

Modelling the Potential Distributions of Sawo Kecik (Manilkara Kauki (L.)) Dubard Using Maxent to Support Conservations of Historical and Cultural Vegetations in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Province

“…One approach that has been used widely to model the potential spatial distributions of a species is known as Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. This model has been used widely to estimate potential distributions of animal (Stephenson et al, 2022), including ticks (Sanchez et al, 2023), vegetation (Dong et al, 2023), and crops. In Indonesia, potential distribution modelling studies using MaxEnt has been developed for X anthomonas campestris (Saputra et al, 2023) and Indigofera tinctoria along Citarum Watershed (Usmadi et al, 2021).…”