Modelling corporate bank accounts

Fry, John; Griguta, Vlad-Marius; Gerber, Luciano; Slater-Petty, Helen; Crockett, Keeley

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109924

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Academic science has poorly studied the research area related to cash flow and balance forecasting, as evidenced by the results of recent scientific publications [10,11]. These publications show the usefulness of forecasting in cash management; however, they fail to consider improving the accuracy of the forecasts used in the respective models.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, forecasting the dynamics of a nonlinear and non-stationary time series is associated with some significant volatilityrelated problems due to the influence of seasonal and calendar factors and the mutual influence of various other factors (macroeconomic, social, political, technogenic, financial, market, etc.). Reasons are the complexity, unpredictability, and multi-scale nature of the environmental impact, which did not find due attention in [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Improving the Accuracy of Forecasting the TSA Daily Budgetary Fund Balance Based on Wavelet Packet Transforms

Karaev

Gorlova

Sedova

et al. 2022

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

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Improving the accuracy of cash flow forecasting in the TSA is the key to fulfilling government payment obligations, minimizing the cost of maintaining the cash reserve, providing the absence of outstanding debt accumulation, and ensuring investment in various financial instruments to obtain additional income. The article describes a method for improving the accuracy of forecasting a time series composed of daily budgetary fund balances in the TSA, based on its preliminary decomposition using a discrete wavelet packet transform of the Daubechies family. This makes it possible to increase the accuracy of traditional forecasting methods from 80% to more than 96%. The decomposition level varied from one to eight to minimize the mean absolute error and improve the forecasting accuracy. Calculations of statistical tests for adequacy confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method for improving forecasting accuracy. The scientific novelty of the proposed method for improving the forecasting accuracy of time series from daily budgetary fund balances in the TSA lies in proving the need for preliminary timeseries decomposition and subsequent construction of forecasts for the obtained parts, resulting in high forecasting accuracy. The result differs significantly from traditional econometric methods (ARIMA/SARIMA), characterized by a much lower accuracy (50–80%) and a decrease in forecasting accuracy with an increase in the forecast horizon. This article is novel, as it forms a new approach to solving the problem of increasing the efficiency of using budgetary funds, associated with improving the accuracy of forecasting daily budgetary fund balance in the TSA.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving the Accuracy of Forecasting the TSA Daily Budgetary Fund Balance Based on Wavelet Packet Transforms

Karaev

Gorlova

Sedova

et al. 2022

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

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Automated Data Processing of Bank Statements for Cash Balance Forecasting

Griguta¹,

Gerber

Crockett³

et al. 2021

Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems

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The forecasting of cash inflows and outflows across multiple business operations plays an important role in the financial health of medium and large enterprises. Historically, this function was assigned to specialized treasury departments who projected future cash flows within different business units by processing available information on the expected performance of each business unit (e.g. sales, expenditures). We present an alternative forecasting approach which uses historical cash balance data collected from standard bank statements to systematically predict the future cash positions across different bank accounts. Our main contribution is on addressing challenges in data extraction, curation, and pre-processing, from sources such as digital bank statements. In addition, we report on the initial experiments in using both conventional and machine learning approaches to forecast cash balances. We report forecasting results on both univariate and multivariate, equally-spaced cash balances pertaining to a small, representative subset of bank accounts.

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Recommendations on Raising Operative Efficiency of Budget Funds Use

Kosov,

Makashina,

Staroverova

2024

Vestn. Ross. èkon. univ. im. G. V. Plehanova

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In the current situation the interest of legislative and executive powers in efficiency of budget funds use becomes more evident. The authors of the article put forward recommendations in such aspects as upgrading organizationmethodological and statutory-legal support, extending informational base and improving accuracy of cash forecast. The most important finding of the research is the author’s model of cash forecast based on real daily data of the Federal Treasury. The experience of developing a specialized information resource for cash forecast gives an opportunity not only to respond quickly to requests of irregular expenses connected with elimination of emergency situation effects, court rulings, etc, but also to accumulate daily information for a number of years, which forms the condition for more accurate forecasts. In the research methods of systemic analysis and forecast were used. To prepare recommendations on raising operative efficiency data on revenues and expenses of budgets in the budget system of Russia in 2020–2024 were used. The principle tools for analyzing data were specialized applications and technical means.

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Modelling corporate bank accounts

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

Improving the Accuracy of Forecasting the TSA Daily Budgetary Fund Balance Based on Wavelet Packet Transforms

Improving the Accuracy of Forecasting the TSA Daily Budgetary Fund Balance Based on Wavelet Packet Transforms

Automated Data Processing of Bank Statements for Cash Balance Forecasting

Recommendations on Raising Operative Efficiency of Budget Funds Use

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