Modelling Eurasian lynx populations in Western Europe: What prospects for the next 50 years?

Abstract

Persistence of viable populations may be uncertain for large carnivore species, especially for those established in human-dominated landscapes. Here, we studied the Eurasian lynx in Western Europe established in the Upper Rhine metapopulation (i.e., Jura, Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations) and in the Alpine population. These populations are currently considered as endangered or critically endangered due to high anthropogenic mortality and isolation. We assessed lynx persistence over a 50-year time horizon by implementing a spatially-explicit individual-based model while accounting for road mortality and habitat selection. For the Alpine and Jura populations, forecasts showed a steady growth rapidly reaching a stabilization phase with high resident female occupancy, and a positive growth for the newly re-established Vosges-Palatinian population. Moreover, this population showed a difference in female occupancy between the northern part, where a recent reintroduction program was conducted in the Palatinate Forest, and the southern part. Only the group of individuals in the Black Forest had an irregular growth probably due to the small number of only male lynx at start of the simulation and poor connectivity to surrounding populations. Exchanges of individuals between populations were limited, and the Jura population played the role of a crossroad. Persistence of lynx in Western Europe seems likely on a large scale over the next 50 years. However, lynx persistence in the southern part of the Vosges-Palatinian population and in the Black Forest appears challenging without long-term conservation management.

Bringing circuit theory into spatial occupancy models to assess landscape connectivity

“…While our model can be used to inform strategies for preserving or enhancing landscape connectivity, multiplying approaches and validating outputs from multiple data sources is also needed (Zeller et al 2018;Riordan-Short, Pither, et Pither 2023). For instance, our approach focuses on dispersal in the sense of metapopulation theory (Hanski et Gilpin 1991), and does not account for gene flow or road mortality (Bauduin et al 2021). If we were to evaluate the long-term viability of lynx and otter populations, these issues should be addressed and would require genetic and mortality data.…”