Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale

Müller, Birgit; Hoffmann, Falk; Heckelei, Thomas; Müller, Christoph; Hertel, Thomas W.; Polhill, Gary; Wijk, Mark van; Achterbosch, T.J.; Alexander, Peter; Brown, Calum; Kreuer, David; Ewert, Frank; Ge, Jiaqi; Millington, James D.A.; Seppelt, Ralf; Verburg, Peter H.; Webber, Heidi

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085

Cited by 74 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 205 publications

(193 reference statements)

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“…The majority of districts and cities in Indonesia have good food resilience, even though there are still 81 districts (19.47%) and 7 cities (7.14%) in Indonesia that need to get a comprehensive handling regarding the food vulnerability (Gerintya, 2019). Achieving food security and nutrition for all people is a critical challenge during global change (Müller et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food Diversification: Strengthening Strategic Efforts to Reduce Social Inequality through Sustainable Food Security Development in Indonesia

Rahmanto

Purnomo

Kasiwi

2020

Caraka Tani J. Sustain. Agric.

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<span>Potential</span><span lang="EN-US"> food resources can be utilized through food diversification as a part of the government's efforts to minimize socio-economic inequality with sustainable food security development program. The purpose of this study was to observe the role of food diversification in reducing social inequality through sustainable food security development. This study uses descriptive qualitative methods with secondary data collection techniques which include data references as well as documentation related to food security development. The results showed that in Indonesia, food diversification program has an impact on increasing income, household resilience and welfare with a decrease in the number of the rural poor population of 4.7% (from 16.31 people to 15.54 people). It was positively correlated with the increase in farmers' income by (IDR) 30.37 million per capita increase (4.47%). Then, followed by the level of food security in the district area reached 80.53% (335 regions) and for urban areas amounted to 92.85% (91 regions). National food security can be achieved through maximizing the potential use of food resources at the regional level, by diversifying food based on local wisdom and optimally local resources. It can be concluded that food diversification is a policy that can be used by the government to increase community economic income and reduce poverty and social inequality.</span>

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food Diversification: Strengthening Strategic Efforts to Reduce Social Inequality through Sustainable Food Security Development in Indonesia

Rahmanto

Purnomo

Kasiwi

2020

Caraka Tani J. Sustain. Agric.

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“…The first reason is that almost all large-to global-scale land system models share a single paradigm (economic optimisation of land uses), raising the risk of biases in model results and resultant, unrecognised knowledge gaps (e.g. Verburg et al 2019;Elsawah et al 2020;Müller et al 2020). The second reason is that different paradigms are known to produce very different outcomes, but for reasons that remain unclear (Prestele et al 2016;Alexander et al 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In both models, the simulation of the European land system as distinct from the rest of the world requires implicit assumptions about conditions in other regions and their relationships to Europe. As conceptual alternatives, therefore, neither of these necessarily capture the true dynamics of food prices and production levels, which remains a major challenge for land system modelling Müller et al 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change

Brown

Holman

Rounsevell

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European land use models that are based on the same integrated modelling framework and utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios, but which adopt fundamentally different model paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatial and aggregate land use change and ecosystem service supply. We find that the agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of active management in large, contiguous parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions, and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios where economic and other scenario conditions prevent the normal functioning of price signals and responses. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel, transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change.

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“…In IAM, climate was first integrated into the macro-economic model by representation of carbon dioxide concentrations in the classical model of the long-run growth ( Nordhaus 1975 , 1977 , 1992 ). This model consists of combined data on the growth of crops, usage of soil and some other economic models ( Mendelsohn et al., 2016 ; Prinn et al., 1999 ; Fujino et al., 2006 ; Cai et al., 2020 ; Müller et al., 2020 ; Meijl et al., 2020 ). The IAM developed a single entity by using the cause and effect of change in climate and by collecting the knowledge from different disciplines into a single entity and ultimately developing a network of information for developing policies ( Dinar and Mendelsohn, 2011 ; Vanschoenwinkel et al., 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated assessment model for food security under climate change for South Asia

Alvi

Roson

Sartori

et al. 2021

Heliyon

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The present study develops an integrated assessment model (IAM) for food security under climate change for South Asia. For IAM, initially, an econometric model is estimated that identifies the impact of climate change on crop yields, using the historical relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the production of cereals. Subsequently, future projections have been collected for temperature and precipitation from climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the previous econometric model is applied to obtain the implied future cereal yields changes. Then, the yield variations are fed into a multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, calibrated to the GTAP 9 database, taking the form of decreases in factor-augmenting productivity of the grains sector. Further, the present study evaluates the effects of climate change on an individual South Asian country. The results indicate that change in climate decreases food production, increases food prices, decreases food consumption, and thus affects the welfare. Trade and fiscal policy responses are investigated to combat the problem of food security. It is revealed that these two policies fail to compensate climate change damage in all the selected South Asian countries.

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Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale

Cited by 74 publications

References 205 publications

Food Diversification: Strengthening Strategic Efforts to Reduce Social Inequality through Sustainable Food Security Development in Indonesia

Food Diversification: Strengthening Strategic Efforts to Reduce Social Inequality through Sustainable Food Security Development in Indonesia

How model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change

An integrated assessment model for food security under climate change for South Asia

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