Modelling Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Mediterranean Agricultural Ecosystems

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) is a powerful driver of sustainable landscape development, conservation and management. This is especially true for Mediterranean agricultural landscapes, which are increasingly sensitive to human activities, water scarcity and climate change. Therefore, this study investigates the patterns, dynamics and driving forces of LULC changes affecting Mediterranean agricultural ecosystems, taking southern Spain (regions of Andalusia and Murcia) as a representative case study. Analysis of LULC change facilitates the design of policies to balance competing uses, development pressures and conservation imperatives. Cartographic modelling of LULC changes was applied using the level-3 44 classes of CORINE Land Cover (CLC) maps for 2006 and 2018. Cross-tabulation techniques and descriptive statistics of land uses (persistence, gains, losses, total change, net change and annual change) have been used. LULC change processes have been geographically localized and correlated with their driving factors using logistic regression modelling. Part of these factors are environmental and biophysical (topography, climate, soils, aquifers, protected areas) whereas others are socioeconomic (accessibility, agricultural and environmental policies, natural resource management plans, urban planning, among others). GUIDOS software has been used to compute a fragmentation index of agricultural landscape that contributes to understanding ecological implications of the LULC changes within agricultural semi-natural ecosystems in the study area. Results indicate inter alia that in both regions over 81,000 hectares of agricultural land have changed their use status toward other non-agricultural uses during 2006-2018 due to diverse processes of LULC change, generating significant socioeconomic and environmental implications. Agricultural lands have experienced inverse processes such as crop intensification and extension of irrigated crops, as well as reduction in rainfed arable land and agroforestry areas. It is expected that the results obtained can help policymakers and managers responsible for agricultural and environmental policies in their decision-making processes, including decisions related to agricultural land management, crop diversification, and allocation of the CAP and the agri-environmental payments. Results also could be useful for other countries holding similar agricultural ecosystems.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Depopulated Areas of Mediterranean Europe: A Case Study in Two Inland Provinces of Spain

“…Nowadays, the location of croplands in Southern Europe does not depend so much on physical or biophysical factors, and there is an increasing tendency to locate farms in more degraded areas and with a low water capacity, a long way from cities and markets [45]. This was highlighted in a study in Spain by Bakker and Veldkamp [46], who found that factors such as topography, soil quality, and accessibility have become less important in the location of cropland, and crop cultivation is increasingly concentrated in warm and sunny areas where high production is ensured with the help of modern technology such as irrigation and land levelling, as is happening in the south and southeast of the Iberian Peninsula with the aid of greenhouse and drip irrigation techniques [47]. In the provinces we studied, we did not detect higher levels of abandonment around the cities as had been noted by Bakker et al [45]; in fact, in Soria, there has been an expansion in agriculture around the city, and nor did we notice lower levels of abandonment within the Natura 2000 network in relation to conservation policies for the maintenance of sustainable agriculture, as reported by Levers et al [2].…”