Modelling long-term electricity load demand for rural electrification planning

Riva, Fabio; Sanvito, Francesco Davide; Tonini, Francesco; Colombo, Emanuela; Colombelli, Fabrizio

doi:10.1109/ptc.2019.8810727

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…This approach is used for understanding, describing, tackling, and modeling well-defined endogenous problems concerning existing systems that are suitable to be formulated as interaction between elements through causal relationships. To this approach belongs more recent works performed by Hartvigsson et al [33,34], aimed addressing technical issues related to load profile definition, and the works performed by Riva et al [35,36], aimed at forecasting the evolution of community electricity demand in rural areas of Tanzania. Other relevant contributions about SD theory applied for the development policy design belong to the work done by the Millennium Institute.…”

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confidence: 99%

Improving Sustainable Access to Electricity in Rural Tanzania: A System Dynamics Approach to the Matembwe Village

Tonini

Sanvito

Colombelli³

et al. 2022

Energies

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As it emerges from the literature, electricity access in rural contexts is deeply intertwined with socioeconomic dynamics. However, the advent of a reliable and sufficient source of electricity is not the sole driver that might contribute to local development. Indeed, complementary activities might have a crucial role in sustaining the development of rural communities as well as the electricity access. The current research addresses the lack of counterfactual scenarios in which the impact of complementary activities on electrification projects can be investigated. The authors introduce the case study of Matembwe village, a rural community in the Njombe region of Tanzania. The data collection includes the electricity consumption, number of electricity connections, and number of income-generating activities in a timespan ranging from 1989 to 2015. The analysis is based on system dynamics. The study considers different scenarios representing the dynamics related to the following complementary actions: access to market measures, access to credit measures, and access to usable skills. On the one hand, the study reveals that the effectiveness of the considered complementary actions is limited except from the access to microcredit which fosters an increase in electricity connections by 17%. On the other hand, both access to microcredit and the starting up of a local cooperative by CEFA Onlus that reinvests its profits in the local market impact the socio-economic dimension by 69% and 22%, respectively.

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confidence: 99%

Improving Sustainable Access to Electricity in Rural Tanzania: A System Dynamics Approach to the Matembwe Village

Tonini

Sanvito

Colombelli³

et al. 2022

Energies

Self Cite

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“…Finally, it must be remarked that VRE-based standalone solutions may present reliability issues in terms of guaranteeing enough storage to match peak supply and demand. Thus, it is useful to refer to the World Bank Multi-Tier framework of electricity access Bhatia and Angelou (2015), underpinning how access tier encompass multiple dimensions beyond the effective demand level (Riva et al, 2018b). Our high-tier scenarios also encapsulate the objective of increasing the reliability of supply-beyond the effective amount of power supplied to consumers, because they require technological solutions with higher capacity and thus decrease the share of SA solutions in the optimal mix.…”

Section: Discussion and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways to 100% Electrification in East Africa by 2030

Falchetta¹,

Häfner²,

Tagliapietra³

2020

The Energy Journal

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In spite of abundant generation potential, as of 2019 East Africa has an electricity access level of 36%, with over 140 million people without service. Here, a bot-tom-up geospatial model (OnSSET) is used to estimate least-cost pathways to universal access to electricity by 2030 for different consumption-tier objectives under three regional grid electricity generation mix scenarios. Results suggest median total required investments of $57 and $110 billion for guaranteeing basic (160 and 44 kWh/person/year in urban and rural areas) and moderate—i.e. including potential to enable some productive uses—(423 and 160 kWh/person/year) consumption for newly connected households by 2030, respectively. This corresponds to an average of $5.6 billion/year, and implies median capacity additions of 12.2 GW (59% on-grid, 37% mini-grids, and 4% standalone solutions). At least further $2.7 billion/year in generation capacity are required to satisfy the projected demand growth from already electrified consumers. A grid electricity scenario with 25% lower photovoltaic costs and a higher penetration of renewables reveals to be up to 10% cheaper and 46% less carbon-intensive, while also requiring less up-front investment. To achieve such objectives, investment must be channelled within an enabling policy environment, which we discuss.

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“…Adeoye and Spataru forecasted annual electricity demand for 14 West African countries from 2016 to 2030 using multiple regression analysis (Adeoye & Spataru, 2019). Finally, Riva et al relied on System Dynamics, based on a load stochastic tool (LoadProGen) to predict future rural electricity demand, considering the community of Ikondo (Tanzania) (Riva et al, 2019).…”

Section: Literature Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%