Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration

Luo, Yangyuyu; Bano, Sayeeda

doi:10.1111/1467-8489.12372

Cited by 6 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…This result is in line with related studies [46][47][48]50]. Exporter's GDP, which our case implied a decrease in the chances of continued duration and increased the pro ability of failure, was similar to Fertő and Szerb [50] but in contrast to Wang et al [43] a Luo and Bano [46]. This possibly implies that growth in Zambia′s GDP improves the p duction capacity of other sectors of the economy, away from agriculture.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…An increase in a partner's GDP increases export duration as it increases the market diversity and demand for Zambia's agricultural products. This result is in line with related studies [46][47][48]50]. Exporter's GDP, which in our case implied a decrease in the chances of continued duration and increased the probability of failure, was similar to Fertő and Szerb [50] but in contrast to Wang et al [43] and Luo and Bano [46].…”

Section: Logitsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…The mean export duration for sugar, cotton, and tobacco was 2.5 years, 2.1 years, and 2.7 years, respectively. This can be compared to 2 years for Hungarian maize exports [50], 4 years for Norwegian salmon exports [45], 4.42 years for seafood exports from ASEAN countries [43], 2 years for New Zealand's dairy exports [46] and OECD countries' fish exports, 2 to 4 years for fruit and vegetable exports to the USA [44], 2 to 4 years for fish exports to OECD countries [47], 2 years for Malaysian food products, with beverages lasting up to 7 years [60], and under 3 years for fish exports from developing countries to the European Union (EU) [49].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Year and period fixed effects control for time trends, and spell fixed effects control for the presence of multiple spells, while destination fixed effects control for importer characteristics. Failure to control for these sources of heterogeneity likely leads to understatement of a positive duration dependence and overstatement of a negative duration dependence [46]. Table 2.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A few studies studied the duration of agricultural exports in New Zealand. Luo and Bano [46] followed this line of research by establish the duration and determinants of dairy products in New Zealand. The mean duration of exporting dairy products was found to be 2 years, and it is majorly determined by the GDP of the importer, the domestic GDP, population, and distance.…”

Section: Empirical Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports

et al. 2021

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This paper establishes the determinants of the export durability of agriculture products in Zambia with specific attention to maize, sugar, cotton, and tobacco between 1996 and 2019. We find that approximately 39% of Zambia’s agricultural products were exported beyond the first year of trading and less than 10% lasted up to 6 years of trading. The mean and median duration of exporting agricultural products in Zambia was 1.7 years and 1 year, respectively. Among the products, maize had the highest export duration after the first year of trading, followed by sugar, tobacco, and cotton. Results of the discrete-time logit and probit models with random effects revealed that the duration of total agricultural products was significantly impacted by common colony, contiguity, partner’s gross domestic product (GDP), Zambia’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports. Of these factors, colonial history and Zambia’s GDP reduced export duration, while contiguity, partner’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports increased the durability of exports in Zambia. The effect of Zambia’s GDP was uniform across all individual agricultural products. Total exports also significantly impacted all other agriculture products in a similar manner except for maize. Export durability for cotton was significantly impacted by the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), while the export durability of tobacco was significantly impacted by distance, contiguity, and partner’s GDP. To increase the duration of agriculture exports, we propose the exporting of finished agriculture products (and not just raw materials), which have a higher market value and duration probability. Farmers also need support with export subsidies, increased foreign market access (especially to economies with higher buying power), and negotiated favorable trade terms in the region and around the globe.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Logitsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Empirical Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports

et al. 2021

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Salmon trade duration: The application of firm‐level trade transaction data from the Norwegian salmon industry

Jaghdani,

Johansen,

Thakur

et al. 2024

Agribusiness

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Seafood products are mainly provided through trade to international markets and Norway is the major international player for the export of salmon products. It is argued that fresh or chilled salmon, which are perishable products and Norway's main seafood export, need stable trade partners to safely and properly reach consumption markets. In this study, the firm‐to‐firm level trade transactional data for both exporters and importers for the 2005–2018 period was utilized for a trade duration analysis. The Kaplan–Meier survival estimators, Cox proportional hazard model, and frailty model were used to study the stability of trade relations between the partners through survival and hazard models. The study considers the heterogeneous firm trade model along with a theoretical framework. The results show that, on average, the trade duration for the salmon trade between firms is 2.39 years, which is relatively low for a perishable product such as salmon. It shows that the market entry and exit is relatively fast, and that the survival rate between the EU as a major demand market and non‐EU countries is not very different. However, core and periphery markets can be defined by considering the survival rate, as major processing hubs in the EU, such as Poland and France as core markets, have higher survival rates compared with other countries that can be considered peripheries. Both extensive and intensive margins were found to reduce the hazard ratio. Different hazard ratios were also found between different types of exporter or ones utilizing different means of transport. We conclude that the trade duration between the partners can be increased if the competition in the market increases, which is probably possible in markets like the United States where other exporters such as Chile are available.

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Impact of non‐tariff measures on the survival of China's fresh fruit exports

Peng,

Wang,

2024

Asian-Pac Economic Lit

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Using data at the HS‐6 product level, this study presents evidence on the export survival of China's fresh fruit during the period 2002–2019, and identifies the impact of non‐tariff measures (NTMs) on the hazard rate of trade disruption. The results show that the average length of 2239 trade spells is 5.16 years. Notably, 67.04 per cent of these spells are no more than three years long, whereas only 7.95 per cent are more than 18 years long. Compared with major fruit‐exporting countries, the trade spell distribution of China's fresh fruit exports lacks advantages. The hazard rate can reach 0.41 in the first year of export and is negatively duration dependent. The implementation of NTMs by importing countries has significantly increased the hazard rate. The positive effect of NTMs on the hazard rate is primarily driven by non‐technical measures. Notably, technical barriers to trade measures decrease the export hazard rate of China's fresh fruits with comparative advantages, because these measures focus on product quality. Meanwhile, non‐technical measures increase the export hazard rate of such fruits; this may be because of the possible shock on the relevant fruit industry in the destination market.

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Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration

Cited by 6 publications

References 35 publications

Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports

Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports

Salmon trade duration: The application of firm‐level trade transaction data from the Norwegian salmon industry

Impact of non‐tariff measures on the survival of China's fresh fruit exports

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