Modelling of the spread of a potential invasive pest, the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) in Europe

Möykkynen, Timo; Pukkala, Timo

doi:10.1186/s40663-014-0010-7

Cited by 12 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…CA are self-organizing systems, which have been used for many purposes (Von Neumann 1966;Wolfram 2002). In forestry, CA have been used for land allocation and planning (Strange et al 2001;, and for simulating the spread of pests and pathogens (Möykkynen and Pukkala 2014;Möykkynen et al 2015Möykkynen et al , 2017.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimized cellular automaton for stand delineation

Pukkala

2018

J. For. Res.

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Forest inventories based on remote sensing often interpret stand characteristics for small raster cells instead of traditional stand compartments. This is the case for instance in the Lidar-based and multi-source forest inventories of Finland where the interpretation units are 16 m 9 16 m grid cells. Using these cells as simulation units in forest planning would lead to very large planning problems. This difficulty could be alleviated by aggregating the grid cells into larger homogeneous segments before planning calculations. This study developed a cellular automaton (CA) for aggregating grid cells into larger calculation units, which in this study were called stands. The criteria used in stand delineation were the shape and size of the stands, and homogeneity of stand attributes within the stand. The stand attributes were: main site type (upland or peatland forest), site fertility, mean tree diameter, mean tree height and stand basal area. In the CA, each cell was joined to one of its adjacent stands for several iterations, until the cells formed a compact layout of homogeneous stands. The CA had several parameters. Due to high number possible parameter combinations, particle swarm optimization was used to find the optimal set of parameter values. Parameter optimization aimed at minimizing within-stand variation and maximizing between-stand variation in stand attributes. When the CA was optimized without any restrictions for its parameters, the resulting stand delineation consisted of small and irregular stands. A clean layout of larger and compact stands was obtained when the CA parameters were optimized with constrained parameter values and so that the layout was penalized as a function of the number of small stands (\ 0.1 ha). However, there was within-stand variation in fertility class due to small-scale variation in the data. The stands delineated by the CA explained 66-87% of variation in stand basal area, mean tree height and mean diameter, and 41-92% of variation in the fertility class of the site. It was concluded that the CA developed in this study is a flexible new tool, which could be immediately used in forest planning.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimized cellular automaton for stand delineation

Pukkala

2018

J. For. Res.

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“…The ratio N healthy / N max is the probability of hitting a healthy host tree, and EI is a measure of climatic suitability of the cell for D. septosporum infection. The relationship between EI and the probability of being infected was nonlinear (Figure ; Möykkynen & Pukkala, ; Watt et al., ). Infection occurs if a uniform random number U[0,1] is smaller than p infection .…”

Section: Description Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As some parameters are controllable, computer models make it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative control and eradication measures against DNB. Mechanistic spread models were recently presented for pinewood nematode (Pukkala, Möykkynen, & Robinet, ), pitch canker (Möykkynen, Capretti, & Pukkala, ) and Siberian moth (Möykkynen & Pukkala, ). All these models can be used to calculate the likelihood of spread to a certain area, and to predict the effects of climate change and control measures on the spread rate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of the spread of Dothistroma septosporum in Europe

et al. 2017

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Dothistroma needle blight (DNB), a disease affecting several pine species, is currently generating great concern in Europe. Caused by Dothistroma pini and Dothistroma septosporum, DNB affects pine needles and causes premature defoliation, which results in growth reduction and, in extreme cases, mortality. The disease has increased in importance in Europe over the last 20 years, with an increase in the number of observations of DNB in regions with large areas of Pinus sylvestris in northern Europe. This article presents a cell-based spatiotemporal model for predicting the likelihood and intensity of the future spread of D. septosporum in Europe. Here, "spread" includes both invasion of new regions and infection of healthy stands within already-colonized regions. Predicted spread depends on the availability of host species, climatic suitability of different regions to D. septosporum and dispersal of sexual and asexual spores from infected trees to surrounding forests via water splash, mist and wind. Longdistance spread through transport of infected seedlings is also included in the model. Simulations of spread until 2007 and 2015 were used to validate the model. These simulations produced similar patterns of spread to those observed in Europe.Simulations for 2030 suggested that additional and new outbreaks are likely to occur in Scotland, southern Norway, southern and central Sweden, northern parts of Germany and Poland, Estonia, Latvia and south-west Finland. Preventing the delivery of infected seedlings would be an effective method for reducing the spread of D. septosporum in the Nordic countries, Scotland and Ireland, the Baltic countries, and parts of Germany, Poland and Belarus. In these states, prevention of transport of infected seedlings can reduce the probability of additional spread by 15%-40%.

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“…Substantial economic savings and ecological safety could be achieved by collecting necessary data in carefully designed predictive studies. Quantification of the potential threat by such insects would benefit from ecological model-based risk analyses [16,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survival and Recovery of the Pine-Tree Lappet Dendrolimus pini When Subjected to Simulated Starvation

Łukowski

Adamczyk

Karolewski

2020

Insects

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There are many reasons to study the survival and recovery of animals after starvation in simulated transport conditions or other passive dispersal methods. To do so, we chose Dendrolimus pini, an economically important pest of Scots pine with great potential in terms of passive dispersal outside its territory. In this work, we sought to answer the following questions: What is the maximum survival of different instar larvae after total starvation? Does access to dry tissues of the preferred host plant extend the lifespan of the larvae? Does the possibility of larvae recovery exist after starvation for various periods? We found that older larvae survived longer without food than younger larvae. Moreover, dry food did not extend the lifespan of the larvae. Our observations showed that insects were interested in food and tasted it at the beginning, but they did not feed on it for long. Furthermore, larvae recovery was indeed possible, and the time of starvation did not significantly affect this. We generally concluded that the D. pini larvae were characterized by the ability to survive without food for up to one month, which confirms that this species is able to survive long durations of transport to almost anywhere in the world.

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Modelling of the spread of a potential invasive pest, the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) in Europe

Cited by 12 publications

References 8 publications

Optimized cellular automaton for stand delineation

Optimized cellular automaton for stand delineation

Modelling of the spread of Dothistroma septosporum in Europe

Survival and Recovery of the Pine-Tree Lappet Dendrolimus pini When Subjected to Simulated Starvation

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