Modelling Oil-Sector Dependency of Tax Revenues in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Hajiyev

2019

Energies

The research examines the role of oil in the world economy and the evaluation of the oil factor in the economy of Azerbaijan. The error correction model (ECM) has been used in terms of reliability of the obtained results, and assessment has been done by the FMOLS, DOLS and CCR co-integration methods. Engel-Granger and Phillips-Ouliaris co-integration tests have been used for checking the co-integration relations among variables. Times series have been checked whether they are unit root (Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) as a methodology of the research. The results of the research reveal that daily oil production and consumption have less effect on the formation of the world oil prices. On the other hand, the impact of the world GDP and world industry production volume is a bit more. Generally, the influence of these factors on oil market has been reduced gradually. However, the reverse process is observed during the analysis of the influence of oil production and oil price on the main indicators of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Therefore, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are an oil-exporting countries which is why their macroeconomic indicators, especially currency, GDP and DNP, heavily depends on the oil factor. The research has been limited but highlights the obtained results to some problems and this must be considered as a new source for future research. Thus, the similar studies have been considered to be done thoroughly on several alternative econometric models, but a lack of statistical information on a yearly basis and strong currency intervention constitute some barriers to transiting to a floating currency. The practical importance of the research is to prove that the dependency of the oil prices on the world GDP and world industry production, daily oil production and world oil consumption have decreased gradually. In the second part of the research, the dependency of the Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan economies on oil was proved. This might be a signal to transfer oil resources into human capital.

Section: Model Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil Factor in Economic Development

Hajiyev

2019

Energies

“…Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) (Phillips and Hansen, 1990), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) (Stock and Watson, 1993), Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) (Park, 1992) and analysis of the results of Engle-Granger analysis (Engle and Granger, 1987) are very useful in the research process (Musayev and Aliyev, 2017). Because reviewing the results several times through the ARDLBT co-integration approach allows for a more reliable analysis.…”

Section: Fmols Dols and Ccrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Oil Exports on Imports of Agricultural Machinery and Equipment

Hajiyev²,

Aliyeva³

et al. 2023

IJEEP

The influence of the main export product on the main import product is the focus of any country. In this regard, since oil and oil products are the main export commodity of Azerbaijan, their impact on the import of machinery and equipment necessary for the development of the agricultural and agro −processing industries, which are the main imported products, was chosen as the subject of study. The purpose of the article was to assess the impact of the export of oil and oil products on the import of machinery and equipment necessary for the development of the agricultural sector and the agro −processing industry. The study used data for the period from 1999 to 2020. ARDL and ECM methods were applied and compared with FMOLS, DOLS and CCR as a validation. During the study, 9 hypotheses were proposed. All hypotheses have been proven to some extent. The results of the study show that, like all industries, the agricultural sector depends on the oil factor. Thus, the export of oil to the republic has a positive effect on imports and, of course, on the imports of many machineries and equipment necessary for the development of the agricultural sector, especially agricultural machinery for tillage and harvesting, equipment for the food industry and equipment for processing agricultural products. The overall result of the research was a recommendation to further acceleration of work aimed at diversifying the economy and developing the non −oil sector, similar to the results of other similar studies (researches investigating resource −exporting economies).

“…This means that the oil sector plays a key role in the formation of its state budget. However, taxes and other payments paid by certain economic entities to the state budget, in one way or another, do not fully act as a financial source of the socio-economic policy successfully implemented in the country (Musayev and Aliyev, 2017;Aliyev et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Oil Prices on State Budget Income and Expenses: Case of Azerbaijan

2023

IJEEP

Since Azerbaijan is one of the oil exporting countries, its macroeconomic indicators, especially the exchange rate, the state budget are highly dependent on the oil factor. This study assessed the role of oil in the economy and the impact of the oil factor on the revenues and expenditures of the state budget of Azerbaijan in manat and dollar terms. The study covers the period 2005m03 − 2022m05. Unit root (Augmented Dickey−Fuller (ADF), Phillips−Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski−Phillips−Schmidt−Shin (KPSS)) tests were applied to check the stationarity of variables (time series). ARDL was applied as a research method. In terms of the reliability of the obtained results, the error correction model (ECM) was used, standard tests were carried out, and the joint integration methods of FMOLS, DOLS and CCR were also applied in the evaluation. Engel−Granger and Phillips−Ouliaris tests have been used to test for cointegration interactions between variables. Short−term, long−term, and strong associations between variables were also calculated. The results of the study showed that the state budget depends on the oil and gas sector, and fluctuations in world oil prices functionally and along the chain affect oil revenues and the state budget. A different impact of oil prices (oil revenues) on the state budget in terms of manat and dollar was the devaluation of the manat, which was carried out to reduce the impact of the global financial and economic crisis on Azerbaijan. The general conclusion of the study was a recommendation to further accelerate work on the diversification of the economy and the development of the non−oil sector. The results of the conducted research can serve as a scientific basis for the economic policy of the state aimed at reducing the impact of external oil price shocks on the economy of Azerbaijan and other similar oil−exporting countries, including on the state budget, and diversifying the economy. The functional dependencies of the income and expenses of the state budget in terms of manat and dollar on world oil prices are given below.