Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland

Brzeziecki, Bogdan; Kienast, Félix; Wildi, Otto

doi:10.2307/3236221

Cited by 87 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Unless assisted by man, this could lead to intermediary forest decline, especially due to drought stress at some presently already warm and dry sites. For example, in the valley of the river Rhô ne (Valais), as demonstrated by several simulation studies on the sensitivity of the forests to various climatic change scenarios (Brzeziecki et al, 1995;Fischlin and Gyalistras, 1997;Lischke et al, 1998a). For a better understanding and projection, also migration as reflected by sequences of pollen maps, should be reduced to constant and time-dependent processes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Lischke¹,

Lotter

Fischlin³

2002

Ecological Modelling

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Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Wü rm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Wü rm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Lischke¹,

Lotter

Fischlin³

2002

Ecological Modelling

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“…We can observe frequent attempts to shift forest vegetation belts to higher altitudes (e.g. Brzeziecki et al, 1995;Majer, 2001;Neuhäuslová, 2001;Vacek and Mayová, 2000;Vinš et al, 1996;Buček and Kopecká, 2001, etc.). As a result of global warming, the retreat of spruce forests from the Šumava National Park and their replacement by mountain spruce-beech forests is to be expected in the near future, around the year 2010, according to Vinš et al (1996) and Buček and Kopecká (2001).…”

Section: Vegetation Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes of plant species composition in the Šumava spruce forests, SW Bohemia, since the 1970s

Wild

Neuhäuslová

Sofron

2004

Forest Ecology and Management

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Vegetation dynamics of three forest communities were studied by resampling of relevés recorded in the 1970s in the Bohemian Forest (Š umava Mountains). Results of multivariate analysis (RDA) confirmed significant time changes in species composition of the climax (Calamagrostio-Piceetum) and waterlogged (Bazzanio-Piceetum) spruce forests. The changes in the sphagnum-rich waterlogged spruce forests (Sphagno-Piceetum) are close to the level of significance. The main vegetation changes are represented by a decrease in cover and/or frequency of hygrophilous or sciophilous species (e.g. Athyrium distentifolium, Oxalis acetosella) in climax spruce forests, and an abundant increase of species, indicating a preference to drier stands or better light conditions (e.g. Calamagrostis villosa, Vaccinium vitis-idaea or Avenella flexuosa), in waterlogged spruce forests. We also found a higher proportion of meadow species (e.g. Anthoxanthum odoratum, Festuca rubra or Luzula multiflora) in the newly recorded relevés from waterlogged forests. Analysis of species number per plot showed a remarkable shift to species-rich communities, especially in waterlogged stands. We tried to find the possible factors responsible for the observed changes. Unfortunately, only indirect measurement of environmental factors using Ellenberg's indicator values could be used and did not yield sufficient results. Thus, the changes observed in climax spruce forests were ascribed mainly to a decrease in canopy cover, which was directly estimated. In waterlogged forests, a complex of several general factors, which influence the climax spruce forest, had to be taken into account, such as: (i) a decrease in atmospheric acidification during the last 10-15 years and subsequent improvement in soil conditions, especially in waterlogged stands; (ii) fragmentation of forests as a result of bark-beetles attack; (iii) climate warming documented by long-term local meteorological measurements. #

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“…Definire la nicchia bioclimatica rappresenta uno dei metodi più utilizzati per studiare e analizzare la distribuzione potenziale di una specie (Box 1981, Tu hkanen 1984, Woodward 1987, Huntley et al 1989, Brzeziecki et al 1993Franklin 1998, Guisan et al 1998, Samantha 2005) e gli effetti che eventuali cam biamenti climatici possono avere su tale specie e sul la sua distribuzione (Brzeziecki et al 1995, Huntley et al 1995, Carey 1996, Guisan et al 1998, Bakkenes et al 2002, Pear son et al 2002, Pearson & Dawson 2003.…”

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Production of climatic and bioclimatic maps by Universal Kriging with external drift: theory and examples for Italy

Attorre¹,

Francesconi²,

Valenti³

et al. 2008

Forest@

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Production of climatic and bioclimatic maps by Universal Kriging with external drift: theory and examplesfor Italy. In this paper GIS-based maps of climatic and bioclimatic data for Italy have been obtained by inter polating values observed at measurement stations. Long-term (1961Long-term ( -1990 average monthly data were obtai ned from weather stations measuring precipitation (1102 sites) and temperature (321 sites). We analysed twelve climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and nine bioclimatic indexes. Terrain variables and geographical location have been used as predictors of climate variables: longitude, latitude, elevation, aspect, slope, continentality and estimated solar radiation. Universal kriging (i.e., simple kriging with trend function defined on the basis of a set of covariates), which is optimal (i.e., BLUP, best linear unbiased predictor) if spa tial association is present, has been used as spatial interpolator. Based on the root mean square errors from cross-validation tests, we ranked the best search radius for each variable data set. A 15 km search radius has been demonstrated to be the best one to model precipitation variables and precipitation-based bioclimatic in dexes, while temperature variables were modelled using a 30 km radius.

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Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland

Cited by 87 publications

References 21 publications

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Changes of plant species composition in the Šumava spruce forests, SW Bohemia, since the 1970s

Production of climatic and bioclimatic maps by Universal Kriging with external drift: theory and examples for Italy

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