Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary

Abstract

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural land systems under environmental change.

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

“…As a consequence, ABM simulations result in broadly similar development of land cover maps despite partly pronounced differences in the assumed future development of prices, subsidies, income and workload. It might, however, be that future climate change and/or societal changes will encourage or even force land owners to consider new farming strategies beyond what currently appears conceivable to them (Li, Juhász‐Horváth, Pintér, Rounsevell, & Harrison, ; Trnka et al, ). Coupling land‐use and climate scenarios such that they integrate possible climatic effects on yields, prices and workloads associated with currently grown or alternative crops and cultivars could be an appropriate way towards widening the perceived option space of agents.…”

“…Despite the importance of land use in the SDMs, the impact of landuse scenarios on potential future plant distribution in the study region is much weaker than the impact of climatic scenarios. The apparent contradiction is explained by the modest changes in land use predicted farming strategies beyond what currently appears conceivable to them (Li, Juhász-Horváth, Pintér, Rounsevell, & Harrison, 2018;Trnka et al, 2009). Coupling land-use and climate scenarios such that they integrate possible climatic effects on yields, prices and workloads associated with currently grown or alternative crops and cultivars could be an appropriate way towards widening the perceived option space of agents.…”

Landslides and Cropland Abandonment in China’s Mountainous Areas: Spatial Distribution, Empirical Analysis and Policy Implications

“…For example, the driving factor of cropland abandonment in Eastern Europe is institutional change [45], while in Australia, Portugal and Sweden it is socioeconomic development [17]. In general, changes in human factors (e.g., technology, institutions, and the economy) have contributed to the layout of the cropland landscape in Europe [46][47][48]. However, the impact of the natural environment on cropland abandonment should not be ignored in in-depth research [48][49][50], as changes in land use may be affected by both the natural and social environments.…”

Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Urban Morphology in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Megalopolis, China

“…When introducing these results in public participation processes, it would be helpful to bridge the landscape indices with their implication on sustainability, meanwhile hiding the computational complexity. Studies have shown that introducing urban morphological parameters in urban modelling could yield more accurate projections and could facilitate stakeholder discussion on developing future urban developmental scenarios [34,60]. However, the implications of these indices might remain vague for the general public, as the scale of the current study was coarse.…”