Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Abstract

SUMMARYNotified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such an increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient in preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

Sterile-Insect Methods for Control of Mosquito-Borne Diseases: An Analysis

“…If this threshold is thereby lowered to a level below the level of control actually achieved, disease transmission may resume, although at a lesser level than previously. It has been suggested that this phenomenon has occurred in Singapore, where rigorous vector control gave good protection against dengue for some years, but a significant number of cases have been recorded in the past several years (Reiter 1993, Ooi et al 2006, Burattini et al 2008.…”

Modeling the Effects of Augmentation Strategies on the Control of Dengue Fever With an Impulsive Differential Equation

“…Another common approach is source reduction of mosquito populations which involves the destruction of mosquito oviposition sites. But it is hard to sustain such interventions successfully over large areas (Lambrechts et al , 2015;Burattini et al , 2008).…”

Vectorial capacity, basic reproduction number, force of infection and all that: formal notation to complete and adjust their classical concepts and equations

“…It was when George Macdonald proposed his expression for what he defined as the "basic reproduction rate" (R 0 ) of malaria. In his words, it is defined as the number of secondary cases produced by a single infected individual (index case) along his/her infectious period in an entirely susceptible population (Macdonald 1952a, Dietz 1993, Massad et al 1994, 2010, Heesterbeek 2002, Lopez et al 2002, Burattini et al 2008. His derivation of R 0 is as follows.…”