Modelling the Effects of Elevated CO 2 and Temperature on Swedish and German Spring Wheat Varieties with CERES-Wheat and AFRC-Wheat Crop Models

Laurila, Heikki

doi:10.2307/2845959

Cited by 11 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…In phase Ia1 previous crop modeling results (Laurila 1995, Laurila 2001) with the CERES-Wheat/DSSAT dynamic crop model (Ritchie & Otter 1985, Jones et al 2003 were used to calibrate and define the genetic coefficients (PHINT, P1V, P1D, P5, G1,G2,G3) for generic HiL (using cv. 'Polkka') and MidE (using cv.…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The calibrated CERES-Wheat genetic coefficients (Ritchie & Otter 1985, Jones et al 2003 (Laurila 1995(Laurila , 2001). The CERES-Wheat genetic coefficients controlling both spring wheat phenological development (PHINT with leaf appearance rate and phyllochron interval [dd] , P1V affecting vernalization, P1D affecting photoperiodism and P5 affecting grain filling duration) and yield components (G1 -the grains per ear component, G2 -the 1000 seed weight and G3 -spike number with lateral tiller production) are given in Table 10.…”

Section: Ceres-wheat Dynamic Crop Model With Calibrated Genetic Coeffmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous Finnish crop simulation results (Laurila 1995(Laurila , 2001), field and Open Top Chamber (OTC) crop physiological experimental results (Hakala 1998, Hakala et al 2005) for a high-latitude spring wheat cultivar (cv. 'Polkka') indicated, that the concurrent elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration (700 ppm) and elevated diurnal temperature (+ 3 °C) will increase the yield potential of the HiL wheat genotypes by 1−6% (by 9−13% for a mid-European cv.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently only few crop modeling results are available for the identification of the most important factors affecting wheat non-potential baseline yield levels currently and in the 2050−2100 period with elevated temperature and atmospheric CO 2 levels in Finland (Saarikko 1999, Laurila 1995,2001. In Finland the FINSKEN climate change scenario (Saarikko et al 1996, Saarikko 1999, Carter 2004) estimated that atmospheric CO 2 concentration with seasonal variation will increase from the current mean ambient 377 ppm to 523 ppm and the mean temperature will increase by 2.4 °C by the year 2050 and respectively to 733 ppm and by +4.4 °C by the end of 2100.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Boote et al (2001) crop models simulate genetic improvement and variability within a species by evaluating intracultivar variation and how crop models can be used to hypothesize ideotypes for specific growing environments. In this study the CERES-Wheat/DSSAT dynamic crop model (Ritchie & Otter 1985, Jones et al 2003) was used to define genetic coefficients for MidE (Laurila 1995) and HiL (Laurila 2001) ideotype profiles. The genetic coefficients in the CERES-Wheat model control both wheat phenological development and grain yield components.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A comparative ideotype, yield component and cultivation value analysis for spring wheat adaptation in Finland

Laurila¹,

Mäkelä²,

Kleemola³

et al. 2012

AFSci

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In this study Mixed structural covariance, Path and Cultivation Value analyses and the CERES-Wheat crop model were used to evaluate vegetation and yield component variation affecting yield potential between different highlatitude (> 60° N lat.) and mid-European (< 60° N lat.) spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes currently cultivated in southern Finland. Path modeling results from this study suggest that especially grains/ear, harvest index (HI) and maximum 1000 kernel weight were significant factors defining the highest yield potential. Mixed and Cultivation value modeling results suggest that when compared with genotypes introduced for cultivation before 1990s, modern spring wheat genotypes have a significantly higher yielding capacity, current high yielding midEuropean genotypes even exceeding the 5 t ha -1 non-potential baseline yield level (y b ). Because of a forthcoming climate change, the new high yielding wheat genotypes have to adapt for elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 growing conditions in northern latitudes. The optimized ideotype profiles derived from the generic high-latitude and mid-European genotypes are presented in the results. High-latitude and mid-European ideotype profiles with factors estimating the effects of concurrent elevated CO 2 and temperature levels with photoperiodical daylength effects can be utilized when designing future high yielding ideotypes adapted to future growing conditions. The CERES-Wheat ideotype modeling results imply, that with new high yielding mid-European ideotypes, the non-potential baseline yield (y b ) would be on average 5150 kg ha -1 level (+ 108 %) vs. new high-latitude ideotypes (y b 4770 kg ha -1 , 100%) grown under the elevated CO 2(700ppm) ×temperature (+3°C) growing conditions projected by the year 2100 climate change scenario in southern Finland.

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Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%