Modelling the effects of land-cover changes on surface climate in the Mediterranean region

Anav, Alessandro; Ruti, Paolo; Artale, V.; Валентини, Р.

doi:10.3354/cr00841

Cited by 48 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Generally, during summer, less evaporation is permitted in the global model, which adopts a single-layer surface scheme to describe air−land interactions (Roeckner et al 2003). The different surface scheme, together with possible differences in land cover, may contribute to these dissimilarities (Alessandri et al 2007, Anav et al 2010. However, E_A1B also shows slightly lower et during summer.…”

Section: Evaporation (Et)mentioning

confidence: 93%

Effects of seasonal cycle fluctuations in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean region

Dell'Aquilla¹,

Calmanti²,

Ruti³

et al. 2012

Clim. Res.

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We analysed the downscaling of an A1B scenario simulation for the Euro-Mediterranean area performed with a regional earth system model by focusing on long-term variations in the seasonal cycle of key impact indicators (surface temperature, hydrological cycle). The output of the regional model was compared with the driving global simulation (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and with available observations. Our objective was to highlight the potential additional information end-users may access by using a high-resolution regional coupled system in place of the corresponding coarser global driver. In the regional downscaling, the large sea surface temperature (SST) bias simulated by the global driver is partially reduced, and SST spatial patterns are in better agreement with those observed in the reference climatology, thereby supporting the tenet that coupling the atmosphere with a high-resolution interactive ocean over small areas characterized by complex orography may improve specific aspects of regional climate modelling. A more accurate description of orography produces in the regional model a narrower identification of the effects of a warmer climate on intense precipitation events and on other key environmental indicators, such as the extension of snow cover and the aridity index. An example of the effect of climate variability on river discharge is also presented for a medium/small catchment basin in northern Italy, the Po River, which responds both to variations in rainfall rates and to the amount of snowfall over the Alps. In contrast with the gross underestimation of the global driver, regional simulation produces a reasonable estimate of the observed average discharge (1500 m 3 s −1) and of its seasonal variability, which provides a reliable baseline for societal impact studies.

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Section: Evaporation (Et)mentioning

confidence: 93%

Effects of seasonal cycle fluctuations in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean region

Dell'Aquilla¹,

Calmanti²,

Ruti³

et al. 2012

Clim. Res.

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“…Climate model studies for the temperate regions showed that replacing forests with agriculture or grasslands reduces the surface air temperatures (Bonan, 1997;Bounoua et al, 2002;Oleson et al, 2004) and the number of summer hot days (Anav et al, 2010). Other studies show opposite results, where temperate forests cool the air compared to grasslands and croplands and contribute to higher precipitation rates in the growing season (Copeland et al, 1996;Hogg et al, 2000;Sánchez et al, 2007).…”

Section: Climatic Effects Of Land Use and Land Cover Changementioning

confidence: 87%

Regional-Scale Assessment of the Climatic Role of Forests Under Future Climate Conditions

Gálos¹,

Jacob²

2012

Greenhouse Gases - Emission, Measurement and Management

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“…For example, simplified conceptual models demonstrate that the feedbacks between surface hydrology and the local energy budget support a large variability of the soil-vegetationatmosphere system, especially in water-limited areas where transitions between wet/cool and dry/hot conditions are possible (Baudena et al, 2008). In particular, past studies performed with the same atmospheric model adopted here shown that the variability of maximum surface temperature is sensitive to changes in the land-cover characteristics (e.g., Anav et al, 2010). Therefore, a more accurate representation of land-sea contrast and land cover characteristics adopted for the DD is expected to produce significant deviations from the GCM and the amplification of its unbiased nonstationarity shown in Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benefits from using combined dynamical-statistical downscaling approaches – lessons from a case study in the Mediterranean region

Guyennon

Romano

Portoghese

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Various downscaling techniques have been developed to bridge the scale gap between global climate models (GCMs) and finer scales required to assess hydrological impacts of climate change. Such techniques may be grouped into two downscaling approaches: the deterministic dynamical downscaling (DD) and the statistical downscaling (SD). Although SD has been traditionally seen as an alternative to DD, recent works on statistical downscaling have aimed to combine the benefits of these two approaches. The overall objective of this study is to assess whether a DD processing performed before the SD permits to obtain more suitable climate scenarios for basin scale hydrological applications starting from GCM simulations. The case study presented here focuses on the Apulia region (South East of Italy, surface area about 20 000 km 2 ), characterised by a typical Mediterranean climate; the monthly cumulated precipitation and monthly mean of daily minimum and maximum temperature distribution were examined for the period 1953-2000. The fifth-generation ECHAM model from the MaxPlanck-Institute for Meteorology was adopted as GCM. The DD was carried out with the Protheus system (ENEA), while the SD was performed through a monthly quantile-quantile correction. The SD resulted efficient in reducing the mean bias in the spatial distribution at both annual and seasonal scales, but it was not able to correct the miss-modelled nonstationary components of the GCM dynamics. The DD provided a partial correction by enhancing the spatial heterogeneity of trends and the long-term time evolution predicted by the GCM. The best results were obtained through the combination of both DD and SD approaches.

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Modelling the effects of land-cover changes on surface climate in the Mediterranean region

Cited by 48 publications

References 39 publications

Effects of seasonal cycle fluctuations in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean region

Effects of seasonal cycle fluctuations in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean region

Regional-Scale Assessment of the Climatic Role of Forests Under Future Climate Conditions

Benefits from using combined dynamical-statistical downscaling approaches – lessons from a case study in the Mediterranean region

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