Modelling the epidemic spread of COVID-19 virus infection in Northern African countries

Daw, Mohamed A.; El-Bouzedi, Abdallah

doi:10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101671

Cited by 22 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Libya was the last country in the MENA region to report the first case of corona virus. However, preliminary epidemiological analysis carried out by Daw indicated COVID-19 might have arrived in Libya as early as January-February 2020, which has not been reported by the Libyan health authorities [24,25]. reuse, remix, or adapt this material for any purpose without crediting the original authors.…”

Section: Laboratory Confirmation Of Covid-19 In Libya Is Being Done Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict

Daw

El-Bouzedi

Ahmed

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Introduction: COVID-19 can have even more dire consequences in countries with ongoing armed conflict. Libya, the second largest African country, has been involved in a major conflict since 2011. This study analyzed the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya, examined the impact of the armed conflict in Libya on the spread of the pandemic, and proposes strategies for dealing with the pandemic during this conflict. Methods: We collected the available information on all COVID-19 cases in the different regions of Libya, covering the period from March 25 to May 25, 2020. The cumulative number of cases and the daily new cases are presented in a way to illustrate the patterns and trends of COVID-19 and the effect of the ongoing armed conflict was assessed regionally. Results: A total of 698 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya during a period of three months. The number of cases varied from one region to another and was affected by the fighting. The largest number of cases was reported in the southern part of the country, which has been severely affected by the conflict in comparison to the eastern and western parts of the country. Conclusion: This study describes the epidemiological pattern of COVID-19 in Libya and how it has been affected by the ongoing armed conflict. This conflict seems to have hindered access to populations and thereby masked the true dimensions of the pandemic. Hence, efforts should be combined to combat these consequences.

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Section: Laboratory Confirmation Of Covid-19 In Libya Is Being Done Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict

Daw

El-Bouzedi

Ahmed

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…(2020) [17]. The effective reproduction number of 3.25 is comparable with other countries like Italy [18], Africa [17] but differs with Northern Africa [19] in their initial stages of the pandemic. With the effective reproduction number of 1.28 [95% CI: 1.27 -1.29] as of 26 th June 2020, it therefore means that the outbreak was growing, and hence not yet under control.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Short-Term Projection of COVID 19 Cases in Kenya using an Exponential Model

Kirichu¹

2020

Preprint

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Abstract Introduction: The COVID-19 disease has spread to over 200 countries and territories since the first case was recorded in Wuhan, China in December 2019. In Kenya, the first case of COVID-19 was recorded on 13th March 2020 and since then over five thousand cases have been confirmed as of 26th June 2020. In the same period, one hundred and forty four mortality cases had been recorded in the country. With the rapid changing situation, timely and reliable data is required for monitoring, planning and rapid decision making with an aim of reversing the already deteriorating situation (economic, health, learning among others) in the country. Methods: The study used the exponential growth model to estimate the daily growth rate and the real-time-effective reproduction number. The study also estimated the naïve and the adjusted Case Fatality Rates. Results: The naïve-Case Fatality Rate of 26th June 2020 which was the 106 day after the first case was confirmed in Kenya was estimated as 2.5% while the adjusted Case Fatality Rate with a lag of 2 days was estimated as 2.6%. The daily exponential growth rate was estimated as 0.22 while the real-time reproduction number as of 26th June 2020 was estimated as 1.28 [95% CI: 1.27 – 1.29]. Conclusion: The daily growth rate and the real-time reproduction number indicated that the outbreak was still growing as of the time of analysis.

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“…Libya was the last country in the MENA region to report the rst case of corona virus. However, preliminary epidemiological analysis carried out by Daw indicated COVID-19 might have arrived in Libya as early as January-February 2020, which has not been reported by the Libyan health authorities [24,25].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict. 

Daw

El-Bouzedi

Ahmed

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Introduction: COVID-19 can have even more dire consequences in countries with ongoing armed conflict. Libya, the second largest African country, has been involved in a major conflict since 2011. This study analyzed the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya, examined the impact of the armed conflict in Libya on the spread of the pandemic, and proposes strategies for dealing with the pandemic during this conflict.Methods: We collected the available information on all COVID-19 cases in the different regions of Libya, covering the period from March 25 to May 25, 2020. The cumulative number of cases and the daily new cases are presented in a way to illustrate the patterns and trends of COVID-19 and the effect of the ongoing armed conflict was assessed regionally.Results: A total of 698 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya during a period of three months. The number of cases varied from one region to another and was affected by the fighting. The largest number of cases was reported in the southern part of the country, which has been severely affected by the conflict in comparison to the eastern and western parts of the country.Conclusion: This study describes the epidemiological pattern of COVID-19 in Libya and how it has been affected by the ongoing armed conflict. This conflict seems to have hindered access to populations and thereby masked the true dimensions of the pandemic. Hence, efforts should be combined to combat these consequences.

show abstract

Modelling the epidemic spread of COVID-19 virus infection in Northern African countries

Cited by 22 publications

References 4 publications

The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict

The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict

Short-Term Projection of COVID 19 Cases in Kenya using an Exponential Model

The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict.

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Modelling the epidemic spread of COVID-19 virus infection in Northern African countries

Cited by 22 publications

References 4 publications

The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict

The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict

Short-Term Projection of COVID 19 Cases in Kenya using an Exponential Model

The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict.&nbsp;

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The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict.