Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China

Shen, Mingwang; Peng, Zhihang; Xiao, Yanni; Zhang, Lei

doi:10.1101/2020.01.23.916726

Cited by 213 publications

(207 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Fortunately, a main trend is that the estimated R 0 value for 2019-nCoV is getting reduced as case information accumulates. And with the control measures implemented, the effective reproduction number (R e ) has been shown to drop to 2.08 (1.99e2.18) as of 22 Jan 2020 [14].…”

Section: Transmissibility Of 2019-ncovmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathogenicity and transmissibility of 2019-nCoV—A quick overview and comparison with other emerging viruses

Chen

2020

Microbes and Infection

740

652

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Section: Transmissibility Of 2019-ncovmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathogenicity and transmissibility of 2019-nCoV—A quick overview and comparison with other emerging viruses

Chen

2020

Microbes and Infection

740

652

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“…[8] is much higher than the estimate made by the present theoretical model. This is due to the neglect of the infectious ability of patient in latent period in previous models [6][7][8] . Because only the infected are transmissible, the actual probability of infection needs to be overestimated to adequately fit the raw data, which ultimately leads to overestimation of the number of infected people.…”

Section: Figure1 Modified Seir Propagation Dynamics Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the shortcomings of the transmission dynamic model itself have also become the direct cause of limiting its prediction effect. Latent patients are not easy to be effectively quarantined, and recent evidence shows that latent patients have a strong infectious ability, but the existing epidemic transmission dynamic models [5][6][7][8] often ignore the transmission risks caused by patients in the latent period. In addition, researchers have found that estimates of the average latency of 2019-nCoV are also changing.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

SEIR Transmission dynamics model of 2019 nCoV coronavirus with considering the weak infectious ability and changes in latency duration

Shi

Cao

Feng

2020

Preprint

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Pneumonia patients of 2019-ncov in latent period are not easy to be effectively quarantined, but there is evidence that they have strong infectious ability. Here, the infectious ability of patients during the latent period is slightly less than that of the infected patients was assumed. We established a new SEIR propagation dynamics model, that considered the weak transmission ability of the incubation period, the variation of the incubation period length, and the government intervention measures to track and isolate comprehensively. Based on the raw epidemic data of China from January 23, 2020 to February 10, 2020, the dynamic parameters of the new present SEIR model are fitted. Through the Euler integration algorithm to solve the model, the effect of infectious ability of incubation patients on the theoretical estimation of the present SEIR model was analyzed, and the occurrence time of peak number in China was predicted.

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“…Several studies have described the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of NCP, and have demonstrated that it can transmitted between humans (4,6). A few studies have also estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of NCP (6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11). For instance, Li et al computed the R0 of 2.2 using daily NCP data before January 4 in Wuhan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

Liu

Xiao

et al. 2020

Preprint

274

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Rationale: Several studies have estimated basic production number of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). However, the time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP during the outbreak remain unclear. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the basic and time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP across China, and compared them with SARS. Methods: Data on NCP cases by February 7, 2020 were collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing and Hong Kong during 2002-2003 were also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R0) and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of NCP and SARS. Measurements and main results: As of February 7, 2020, 34,598 NCP cases were identified in China, and daily confirmed cases decreased after February 4. The doubling time of NCP nationwide was 2.4 days which was shorter than that of SARS in Guangdong (14.3 days), Hong Kong (5.7 days) and Beijing (12.4 days). The R0 of NCP cases nationwide and in Wuhan were 4.5 and 4.4 respectively, which were higher than R0 of SARS in Guangdong (R0=2.3), Hongkong (R0=2.3), and Beijing (R0=2.6). The Rt for NCP continuously decreased especially after January 16 nationwide and in Wuhan. The R0 for secondary NCP cases in Guangdong was 0.6, and the Rt values were less than 1 during the epidemic. Conclusions:NCP may have a higher transmissibility than SARS, and the efforts of containing the outbreak are effective.However, the efforts are needed to persist in for reducing time-varying reproduction number below one. now named as Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP), occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The disease has rapidly spread from Wuhan to other areas. As a novel virus, the time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP remain unclear, and it is also important to compare it with SARS.What This Study Adds to the Field: We compared the transmission dynamics of NCP with SARS, and found that NCP has a higher transmissibility than SARS. Time-varying production number indicates that rigorous control measures taken by governments are effective across China, and persistent efforts are needed to be taken for reducing instantaneous reproduction number below one. author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

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Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China

Cited by 213 publications

References 2 publications

Pathogenicity and transmissibility of 2019-nCoV—A quick overview and comparison with other emerging viruses

Pathogenicity and transmissibility of 2019-nCoV—A quick overview and comparison with other emerging viruses

SEIR Transmission dynamics model of 2019 nCoV coronavirus with considering the weak infectious ability and changes in latency duration

Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

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