We present a timely evaluation of the Chinese 2019-nCov epidemic in its initial phase, where 2019-nCov demonstrates comparable transmissibility but lower fatality rates than SARS and MERS. A quick diagnosis that leads to case isolation and integrated interventions will have a major impact on its future trend. Nevertheless, as China is facing its Spring Festival travel rush and the epidemic has spread beyond its borders, further investigation on its potential spatiotemporal transmission pattern and novel intervention strategies are warranted.

Backgroud Diabetes mellitus is a common chronic disease and a severe public health issue. The incidence trends for type 1 diabetes (TIDM) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) have rarely been studied on a global scale. We aimed to determine the temporal and geographical trends of diabetes globally. Methods Data on diabetes mellitus, including incidence, prevalence from 1990 to 2017 were obtained from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of diabetes mellitus according to sex, region, and disease type. Results The worldwide incident cases of diabetes mellitus has increased by 102.9% from 11,303,084 cases in 1990 to 22,935,630 cases in 2017 worldwide, while the ASIR increased from 234 /100,000 persons (95% UI, 219–249) to 285/100,000 persons (95% UI, 262–310) in this period [EAPC = 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.79–0.96]. The global ASIRs of T1DM and T2DM both demonstrated significant increase during 1990–2017, with EAPCs of 0.34 (95% CI,0.30–0.39) and 0.89 (95% CI,0.80–0.97), respectively. The ASIR trends also varied considerably by regions and countries. The increase in ASIR was greatest in high sociodemographic index regions (EAPC = 1.05, 95% CI:0.92–1.17) and lowest in low-SDI regions (EAPC = 0.79, 95% CI:0.71–0.88). Conclusions Both the number of incident cases and ASIR of diabetes mellitus increased significantly during 1990–2017 worldwide, but the temporal trends varied markedly across regions and countries.

Background Multiple candidates of COVID-19 vaccines have entered Phase III clinical trials in the United States (US). There is growing optimism that social distancing restrictions and face mask requirements could be eased with widespread vaccine adoption soon. Methods We developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California). We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness and coverage required to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic in scenarios when social contact was to return to pre-pandemic levels and face mask use was reduced. Daily and cumulative COVID-19 infection and death cases from 26th January to 15th September 2020 were obtained from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus resource center and used for model calibration. Results Without a vaccine (scenario 1), the spread of COVID-19 could be suppressed in these states by maintaining strict social distancing measures and face mask use levels. But relaxing social distancing restrictions to the pre-pandemic level without changing the current face mask use would lead to a new COVID-19 outbreak, resulting in 0.8-4 million infections and 15,000-240,000 deaths across these four states over the next 12 months. Under this circumstance, introducing a vaccine (scenario 2) would partially offset this negative impact even if the vaccine effectiveness and coverage are relatively low. However, if face mask use is reduced by 50% (scenario 3), a vaccine that is only 50% effective (weak vaccine) would require coverage of 55-94% to suppress the epidemic in these states. A vaccine that is 80% effective (moderate vaccine) would only require 32-57% coverage to suppress the epidemic. In contrast, if face mask usage stops completely (scenario 4), a weak vaccine would not suppress the epidemic, and further major outbreaks would occur. A moderate vaccine with coverage of 48-78% or a strong vaccine (100% effective) with coverage of 33-58% would be required to suppress the epidemic. Delaying vaccination rollout for 1-2 months would not substantially alter the epidemic trend if the current non-pharmaceutical interventions are maintained. Conclusions The degree to which the US population can relax social distancing restrictions and face mask use will depend greatly on the effectiveness and coverage of a potential COVID-19 vaccine if future epidemics are to be prevented. Only a highly effective vaccine will enable the US population to return to life as it was before the pandemic.

Hubei province in China has completed cycle of quarantine-resumption in 23rd Janauary and 8th April 2020, providing a unique opportunity as for now to assess its intervention impact and the pattern of SARS-COV-2 transmission during the quarantine period. In this study, we evaluate the impact of the metropolitan-wide quarantine on the trend and transmission route of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China. The intervention reduces more than 70% of new infections in both households and the public space, as well as the deaths caused by COVID-19 pneumonia. Household transmission is the dominant route of disease spread regardless of quarantine. This will provide important evidence and scientific insights to other worldwide countries that are currently under quarantine.

Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis (Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25°C, the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29°C and 34°C, about 3°C and 7°C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 29°C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 30°C. Small temperature increases (less than 2°C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 33°C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13–41% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions.