2021
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.02.056
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Projected COVID-19 epidemic in the United States in the context of the effectiveness of a potential vaccine and implications for social distancing and face mask use

Abstract: Background Multiple candidates of COVID-19 vaccines have entered Phase III clinical trials in the United States (US). There is growing optimism that social distancing restrictions and face mask requirements could be eased with widespread vaccine adoption soon. Methods We developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California). We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness and coverag… Show more

Help me understand this report
View preprint versions

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
2
2
1

Citation Types

5
85
0

Year Published

2021
2021
2023
2023

Publication Types

Select...
7
1

Relationship

0
8

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 86 publications
(90 citation statements)
references
References 25 publications
5
85
0
Order By: Relevance
“…Only when the accumulated vaccination rate reaches a certain level does partial protection of herd immunity more or less take place, and the infection of disease is reduced. The study of Shen et al [ 12 ] shows that low effective vaccines under low vaccination rates cannot suppress the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper concludes a similar viewpoint.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Only when the accumulated vaccination rate reaches a certain level does partial protection of herd immunity more or less take place, and the infection of disease is reduced. The study of Shen et al [ 12 ] shows that low effective vaccines under low vaccination rates cannot suppress the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper concludes a similar viewpoint.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This paper concludes a similar viewpoint. The study of Shen et al [ 12 ] developed a mathematical model to project the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. It suggests that without using a mask, a 50% effective vaccine will not suppress infection at low vaccination coverage rate, but an 80% effective vaccine requires a 48–78% vaccination coverage rate, and a 100% effective vaccine requires 33–58% vaccination coverage to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…More realistically, a vaccine with 70% efficacy must be administered to almost 95% of the South African population to contain the epidemic [89]. A model of the United States predicts that if face mask use stops completely, between 33 and 58% of the population would need to be vaccinated with a 100% effective vaccine to suppress the epidemic [90]. This threshold is roughly the same in the realistic scenario where face mask use is reduced by 50% and vaccine effectiveness is 80% [90].…”
Section: Maintaining Preventive Behavioral Interventions During the Covid Vaccine Rolloutmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…A model of the United States predicts that if face mask use stops completely, between 33 and 58% of the population would need to be vaccinated with a 100% effective vaccine to suppress the epidemic [90]. This threshold is roughly the same in the realistic scenario where face mask use is reduced by 50% and vaccine effectiveness is 80% [90]. As more research is done to determine the threshold for herd immunity, the sustained implementation of preventive behavioral interventions remains important in preventing ongoing community transmission of SARS-CoV-2.…”
Section: Maintaining Preventive Behavioral Interventions During the Covid Vaccine Rolloutmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In resource-constrained countries, the prevalence of communicable diseases is high, and hospitals can rely heavily on face masks to protect medical personnel from coronavirus infection and prevent cross-contamination among patients, the general public, and health care workers. 12 , 13 Different study shows wearing of face mask can reduce the risk of respiratory virus infection. A systematic review and meta-analysis in Chinese show wearing of face mask can prevent from influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%