Modelling the impact of climate change on the flow of the Eerste River in South Africa

Plessis, J A du; Kalima, Solomon Gadiel

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2021.103025

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Similar projections (28 to 52% decrease in flow in 2070-2100) are reported in a northern Spain catchment [30]. The Eerste River in South Africa will also observe a decrease in water availability by 8-18% by the end of the century [31]. In contrast, monsoon flow in the Chaliyar River Basin, India, is projected to increase by 8.1-25.4% in 2070-2099 [32].…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Assessing the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on the Hydrologic Cycle Using the SWAT Model in the Mun River Basin in Northeast Thailand

Khadka,

Babel,

Kamalamma

2023

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC) will alter a basin’s hydrological processes and water balance. Quantifying their significance is imperative in formulating appropriate countermeasures and management plans. This study assesses projected changes in hydrological variables under CC and LUC scenarios to provide multi-dimensional insight into water balance relevant to an agricultural watershed in Northeast Thailand. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate hydrological variables (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, and water yield) for the baseline (1981–2010) and the near-future (2021–2050) after calibrating the model. CC projections considering the CMIP6 model ensemble for the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) show the annual rainfall may not change significantly (0.5% increase compared to baseline). However, the surface runoff will likely increase by 33% due to the projected increase in rainfall intensity and extremes. The increase in urban areas due to LUC for the business as usual (BAU) scenario is also expected to boost surface runoff by 38–87%. Similarly, the LUC scenario with forest expansion will increase evapotranspiration by up to 1.3%. While CC is anticipated to raise water yield by 11%, LUC may reduce it by 6%. Under the combined scenario, the yield is expected to increase by 8%, indicating CC as the dominating driver. The results show that although CC governs the runoff from the basin, land-use change will also impact flows at a monthly scale. Importantly, soil moisture in the future will decrease (8–9%) under both stressors, which will reverberate in the basin’s agricultural livelihood and socioeconomic settings unless the appropriate adaptation measures are implemented.

show abstract

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Assessing the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on the Hydrologic Cycle Using the SWAT Model in the Mun River Basin in Northeast Thailand

Khadka,

Babel,

Kamalamma

2023

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The net result could be a significant reduction in river streamflows during the dry season as a result of climate change [88]. This would trigger an increase in demand for irrigation water in the future [89], especially in productive areas like the Guayas River basin. At the same time, the increased flow during the flood season could affect the functioning of dams and reservoirs [90,91], such as the Daule-Peripa, which is located in the middle part of the basin.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Ilbay-Yupa

Ilbay

Zubieta

et al. 2021

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.

show abstract

Evaluating changes in flood frequency due to climate change in the Western Cape, South Africa

Pillay,

Simatele

2024

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study assesses the impact of climate change on flood frequency across seven sites in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The calibrated Water Resources Simulation Model (WRSM)/Pitman hydrological model was run using precipitation inputs from two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) using a combination of eight global circulatory models (GCM) for the two periods (2030–2060 and 2070–2100). GCMs were statistically downscaled using the delta change (DC), linear scaling (LS) and quantile delta mapping (QDM) approaches. Average daily discharge was estimated from each downscaled daily precipitation dataset using the Pitman/WRSM model with the Fuller and Sangal estimation methods used to calculate daily instantaneous peak flows. Flood frequency curves (FFC) were generated using the annual maximum series (AMS) for the GCM ensemble mean and individual GCMs for the return periods between 2 and 100 years. FFCs generated based on LS and QDM downscaling methods were aligned for the GCM ensemble mean in terms of the direction of FFCs. Further analysis was conducted using outputs based on the QDM approach, given its suitability in projecting peak flows. Under this method, both Fuller and Sangal FFCs exhibited a decreasing trend across the Jonkershoek and Little Berg River sites; however, estimated quantiles for low-probability events were higher under the Fuller method. This study noted the variation in FFCs from individual GCMs compared to the FFC representing the GCM ensemble mean. Further research on climate change flood frequency analysis (FFA) in South Africa should incorporate other advanced downscaling and instantaneous peak flow estimation (IPF) methods.

show abstract

Modelling the impact of climate change on the flow of the Eerste River in South Africa

Cited by 7 publications

References 10 publications

Assessing the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on the Hydrologic Cycle Using the SWAT Model in the Mun River Basin in Northeast Thailand

Assessing the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on the Hydrologic Cycle Using the SWAT Model in the Mun River Basin in Northeast Thailand

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Evaluating changes in flood frequency due to climate change in the Western Cape, South Africa

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About