Modelling the impact of future climate scenarios on yield and yield variability of grapevine

Abstract

A mechanistic growth model was used to evaluate the mean yield and yield variability of grapevine Vjtis vinifera L. under current and future climates. The model used was previously validated using field experiment data. The effect of elevated CO2 on grapevine growth was also considered. Adaptation of 2 varieties (Sangiovese and Cabernet Sauvignon) to scenarios of increased CO2 and climate change, and potential changes in agricultural risk (i.e. inter-seasonal variability), were examined. Before testing the effect of climate scenarios, we analysed the sensitivity of modelled grapevine yield to arbitrary changes in the 3 driving variables (temperature, solar radiation and COz). The results showed the model to be more sensitive to changes in CO2 concentration and temperature than to changes in radiation. Analyses made using transient GCM (general circulation model) scenarios (UKTR and GFDL) showed different changes in mean fruit dry matter for the different scenarios, whereas mean total dry matter, and fruit and total dry matter variability, were predicted to increase under almost all the scenarios. Predictions based on equilibrium scenarios (UKLO and UKHI) gave similar results. For Sangiovese, vancty adaptation analysis suggested a better adaptation in terms of mean production, but a worse adaptation in terms of yield variab~l~ty.

Grapevine and climatic changes: a glance at the situation in Alsace

“…This model was used only after flowering, when solar radiation interception has almost reached its maximum. We calculated a potential biomass accumulation (PBA) as: (3) where MS(i) is the function giving the daily biomass increase according to the previously described model and n the number of days in the period.…”

“…As to the potential biomass accumulation, higher temperatures and CO 2 concentrations increase the photosynthetic activity rate. According to Bindi et al [3], the photosynthesis rate increases by 0.15% per annum with a 1.5 ppm per annum increase in CO 2 content. In conclusion, the theoretical potential biomass production over this period was not modified (Fig.…”

“…In the two years of experiments reported by Bindi et al [4], fruit yield evolved more or less in parallel with total biomass production. By using different scenarios of climate change, but without taking into account the water availability, these authors predicted a higher but more variable biomass production [3]. On the one hand, higher temperatures shorten the development cycle, but on the other, the photosynthesis rate is improved both by this increase in mean temperatures and by higher CO 2 concentration.…”

Carbon balance, partitioning and photosynthetic acclimation in fruit-bearing grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo) grown under simulated climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature and moderate drought) scenarios in temperature gradient greenhouses

“…All these physiological processes and 20 grape quality are sensitive to some extent to one or several stress factors related to 21 climate change. Grapevine photosynthesis, as in other C 3 species, is limited by CO 2 (Mullins et al, 1992;Bindi et al, 1996). Any CO 2 increase therefore may enhance CO 2 23 fixation rates (Long, 1991).…”

Combining ecophysiological models and genetic analysis: a promising way to dissect complex adaptive traits in grapevine

“…Bindi et al, 1996;Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri et al, 2006), to functional models, which focus more on specific processes such as phenology (Cola et al, 2014;Garcia de CortazarAtauri et al, 2009 ;Parker et al, 2011Parker et al, , 2013, leaf gas exchanges (Prieto et al, 2012), plant water dynamics (Lebon et al, 2003), or berry growth and quality (Dai et al, 2008 ; Figure 1). The choice of which processes to represent in detail and the level of complexity achieved for a given process is of course conditioned by the understanding of underlying grapevine physiology and the available experimental dataset.…”