Modelling the impact of migration on the HIV epidemic in South Africa

Abstract

Migration primarily influences HIV spread by increasing high-risk sexual behaviour, rather than by connecting areas of low and high risk. Frequent return of migrants is an important risk factor when coupled with increased sexual risk behaviour. Accordingly, intervention programmes in South Africa need to target the sexual behaviour of short-term migrants specifically, even though these individuals may be more difficult to identify.

Optimum resource allocation to reduce HIV incidence across sub-Saharan Africa: a mathematical modelling study

“…27 The potential consequences of such dynamics are not clear a priori; whilst migration could reduce heterogeneity in well-connected regions, movement patterns would themselves be heterogeneous, as would interregional service-seeking behaviours. To the extent that migrating populations could be targeted specifically, the benefits of a focused approach could be amplified.…”

Optimal Control of an HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with Infective Immigration and Behavioral Change

“…To cope with these problems, Megan Coffee et al [10] studied the dynamics of HIV/AIDS with infective immigration both clinically and mathematically. A nonlinear mathematical model consisted of two stages of infection before full-blown AIDS with constant inflow of HIV infectives are developed by Ram Naresh et al [8].…”

Methamphetamine and Cocaine Use among Mexican Migrants in California: The California-Mexico Epidemiological Surveillance Pilot

“…Migration has increased the vulnerability of populations to HIV infection in different parts of the world (Coffee, Lurie & Garnett, 2007; Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS & International Organization for Migration, 1998;Yang, Derlega & Luo, 2007). Mexican migration has increased dramatically in recent decades in the U.S., and California continues to be home to the highest concentration of this population (The Pew Hispanic Center, 2005).…”