Modelling the Latvian power market to evaluate its environmental long-term performance

Blumberga, Dagnija; Blumberga, Andra; Barisa, Aiga; Rošā, Marika; Lauka, Dace

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.06.016

Cited by 20 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The introduced scenario includes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants, energy efficiency measures in buildings, electrification of private transportation, use of heat pumps in rural areas and district heating in urban areas and switching from natural gas to bio-methane. Trought this research it has been proved that the use of biomass for energy production, which is not the most sustainable solution, is not a key pillar of renewable transition by the EU as shown in previous research [19]. Also, for Latvia, decarbonization is possible with limited use of biomass [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Cost-Optimal Policy Strategies for Reaching Energy Efficiency Targets and Carbon Neutrality

Pakere,

Freimanis,

Alena-Ozolina

et al. 2023

Environmental and Climate Technologies

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The TIMES Latvia optimization model was developed to evaluate cost-effective pathways for reaching energy efficiency targets in 2030 and carbon neutrality in the Latvian economy by 2050. The model includes both the end-use sectors such as transport, buildings, industry and agriculture and the energy sector, with a well-developed database of existing and future RES and storage technologies. The modelling framework allows to identify the cost-optimal future energy mix by considering the electrification potential of each sector. Therefore, it allows the analysing of the impact of different policy strategies on sectoral integration levels and the necessity for additional energy storage capacities. The results show that one of the optimal solutions for reaching the energy efficiency targets in 2030 is the wide expansion of heat pump utilization merged with ambitious building renovation policy to increase energy efficiency. The building heat supply transformation also brings higher power consumption and interacts with the wider utilization of wind power. Alternative pathway could rely on increased solar power installation for self-consumption coverage which shows lower costs than building energy efficiency increase.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Cost-Optimal Policy Strategies for Reaching Energy Efficiency Targets and Carbon Neutrality

Pakere,

Freimanis,

Alena-Ozolina

et al. 2023

Environmental and Climate Technologies

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“…The study applies a stepwise methodology. First, previously developed supply-side models [44][45][46][47] and demand-side sectoral models [48][49][50][51] are joined in one aggregated model. The model is validated during the second step by a set of validation tests and historical data.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In system dynamics, a stock-and-flow structure is used to simulate the behavior of the studied system, and a causal mapping is employed to study the causes of dynamics of a complex system with feedbacks and nonlinearities. In this study, the previously built separate system dynamics models of energy supply [44][45][46][47] and demand sectors [48][49][50][51] are adopted and joined. The model is built in Stella Architect software.…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Deliberation Platform for Energy Transition Policies: How to Make Complex Things Simple

2021

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The energy transition from inefficient fossil-based to sustainable energy systems can face various lock-ins. There are no pathways that are free of stress. However, many routes are possible. A good understanding of the dynamic behavior of systems is crucial, and proper support tools are needed to assess the outcomes of every selected pathway. This study aims to develop an Internet-based interface tool for the national energy simulation model as a tool for a “hybrid forum”; study energy transition lock-ins in one of the Eastern European countries; and apply the interface tool to study different pathways to Latvia’s climate and energy goals. System dynamics are used to reach the goals of the study. A causal loop diagram is applied to study feedback loops and lock-ins, a stock-and-flow structure is used to build a simulation model, and a user interface tool is built on top of it. The results show that the developed interface tool is user-friendly and can be used as a discussion platform. The results from the case study reveal how the soft power of Russia can lock in the energy transition in Eastern European countries by creating policy choices with additive effects and what pathways towards energy transition can be used to lock-out.

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“…A share of the different resource technologies depends on the capacity changes. Incoming investment flows and outgoing depreciation flows determine the installed capacity stocks [33]. In general, the stock level at a particular time (t) is determined by differential equation [32]:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of economical mechanisms on CO2 emissions from non-ETS district heating in Latvia using system dynamic approach

Ziemele

Cilinskis

Žogla

et al. 2017

Int J Energy Environ Eng

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A system dynamics modeling approach was used to analyze the impact of economical mechanisms on CO 2 emissions from the Latvian district heating system that is not covered by the European Union (EU) Emission Trading System (non-ETS). Three policy instruments were included in the system dynamic model: carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient building renovations with the aim to decrease energy consumption. Eight development scenarios were examined, taking into account different policy mixes for the transition of the heat network to the low-temperature regime. The heat tariff was used as the main indicator to determine the pace and structure of the technology change. The existing natural gas technologies and three renewable energy technologies (biomass combustion equipment, heat pump, and solar collectors with accumulation) were included in the model. Modeling results show substantial CO 2 reduction potential; however, the results are highly dependent on the applied financial instruments. It is recommended to apply a policy mix, including all the proposed policy instrumentscarbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient renovation.

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Modelling the Latvian power market to evaluate its environmental long-term performance

Cited by 20 publications

References 21 publications

Cost-Optimal Policy Strategies for Reaching Energy Efficiency Targets and Carbon Neutrality

Cost-Optimal Policy Strategies for Reaching Energy Efficiency Targets and Carbon Neutrality

Deliberation Platform for Energy Transition Policies: How to Make Complex Things Simple

Impact of economical mechanisms on CO2 emissions from non-ETS district heating in Latvia using system dynamic approach

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