2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.06.020
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Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union

Abstract: and Social Research is Britain's longest established independent research institute, founded in 1938. The vision of our founders was to carry out research to improve understanding of the economic and social forces that affect people's lives, and the ways in which policy can bring about change. Seventy-five years later, this remains central to NIESR's ethos. We continue to apply our expertise in both quantitative and qualitative methods and our understanding of economic and social issues to current debates and … Show more

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Cited by 47 publications
(40 citation statements)
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“…Estimates of the possible impact of Brexit on the national UK economy have varied widely and been the target of much heated debate (such as Ebell, Hurst, & Warren, ; Economists for Brexit, ; HM Treasury, ). At one extreme are studies such as that by HM Treasury and the London School of Economics, which predict that a “hard” Brexit—a withdrawal without any free trade deal with the EU, and a new relation based on WTO trade rules—will lead to a reduction in national GDP of as much as 8 or nearly 10%, respectively, by 2030.…”
Section: How Will Brexit Impact British Cities?mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Estimates of the possible impact of Brexit on the national UK economy have varied widely and been the target of much heated debate (such as Ebell, Hurst, & Warren, ; Economists for Brexit, ; HM Treasury, ). At one extreme are studies such as that by HM Treasury and the London School of Economics, which predict that a “hard” Brexit—a withdrawal without any free trade deal with the EU, and a new relation based on WTO trade rules—will lead to a reduction in national GDP of as much as 8 or nearly 10%, respectively, by 2030.…”
Section: How Will Brexit Impact British Cities?mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Our modelling approach builds on work published by NIESR prior to the referendum (Ebell, Hurst, & Warren, 2016;Pain and Young, 2004) and in response to proposals subsequently put forward by the British government Hantzsche, Kara, Lenoel, & Piggott, 2018;Hantzsche, Kara, & Young, 2018). We model the economic impact of the government's proposed Brexit deal as the combined result of different Brexit-related shocks to the economy, namely, through trade, foreign direct investment, net migration, productivity and contributions to the EU budget.…”
Section: Modelling the Brexit Dealmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The focus of most existing research on Brexit has been on aggregate impacts across the economy. For example, both the UK Treasury (see HM Treasury, 2016a,b) and the UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) (see Baker et al 2016, Ebell andWarren, 2016) used the NIESR NiGEM model to estimate the macroeconomic impact of Brexit on the UK. The NiGem model, which is a world model, was also used to assess the implications of Brexit across OECD countries (Kierzenkowski et al 2016) while the EU Commission used their QUEST dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to estimate the impact on the EU (EC, 2016).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%