The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU

Lawless, Martina; Morgenroth, Edgar

doi:10.1080/21582041.2018.1558276

Cited by 51 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 17 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The recent focus on estimating micro-founded impacts of tariff and non-tariff measures on trade patterns is an important development in the Brexit literature (Lawless and Morgenroth, 2019;Cappariello, 2017;Arriola et al, 2018). These approaches generally seek to identify the economic costs of Brexit through directly applying trade frictions (such as tariffs and non-tariff measures) to microlevel data.…”

Section: Recent Literature: Trade Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios

Bergin¹,

Economides²,

Rodríguez³

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This Article attempts to quantify the macroeconomic impact of Brexit on the Irish economy. Given both the political and economic uncertainty, we consider a range of alternative scenarios. We focus on the most well understood channels through which Brexit will affect Ireland, namely though lower trade, incorporating the impact of tariff and non-tariff measures, and the potentially positive impact of FDI diversion to Ireland. Our approach, and the main contribution of this paper, is to build up estimates of each of these channels from a range of recent microeconomic studies, so our estimates are anchored in the empirical literature. We then use these micro-estimates to calibrate macro scenarios; specifically we generate alternative paths for the UK and international economy using the NiGEM global model and assess the impact on Ireland using the COSMO model. Overall, in each scenario, the level of Irish output is permanently below where it otherwise would have been were the UK to decide to remain in the EU.

show abstract

Section: Recent Literature: Trade Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios

Bergin¹,

Economides²,

Rodríguez³

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…From the global point of view, however, it is best to push for multilateral trade liberalisation. 11 For the product and sector level impacts of a hard Brexit across the EU, see Lawless and Morgenroth (2016).…”

Section: The Trade Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… For the product and sector level impacts of a hard Brexit across the EU, see Lawless and Morgenroth (). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Brexit and its economic consequences

Chang

2018

World Economy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As the formal process of Brexit has already started, there is much uncertainty about Brexit's impacts on Britain's social, political and economic future. This paper examines the economic impact. After briefly discussing some significant EU treaties that serve as the background materials, it presents the key arguments advocated by the leave and remain camps. The economic impact depends critically on the negotiation outcomes. Aside from the debate on the divorce costs, there are numerous issues that must be negotiated, such as immigration, trade in goods, services, agriculture, fisheries and financial regulations. We discuss various scenarios of possible new trade regimes, resulting in different impacts on the UK economy. With each side having its bargaining chips to play, the trade‐offs between “give and take” in the negotiation game are analysed. Considering various strategic options, this paper urges rationality and cooperation, especially weighing both sides’ entwined economic interests, in addition to their mutual security, defence, environmental and world concerns. The potential gains and losses in the event where the UK contemplates new trade arrangements with the non‐EU countries are analysed in the Appendix.

show abstract

“…Such a scenario of further develoentdevelopment of trade relations is called "Hard Brexit". When assessing the impact of these trade regimes, models focus on impact assessments through quantitative GDP analyzes Lawless and Morgenroth (2016).…”

Section: Eu Model Agreements With Other Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the literature Emerson et al (2017) and Lawless and Morgenroth (2016), a decline of 30% of EU27 exports to the UK and a fall of 22% of the UK exports to the EU27 was calculated. These statistics, which rely on applying the most favourable WTO tariffs, result in a decline of 2% of total EU27 exports to the rest of the world.…”

Section: Eu Model Agreements With Other Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic impacts of Brexit to EU27 and UK

Stevović¹

2018

Industrija

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Assessment on economic consequences of Brexit to 27 countries members of European Union and to United Kingdom are researched in this paper. The process is current and challenging because some of the negotiating positions are still ongoing. Relevant economic parameters are calculated, analyzed and discussed, as well as spectrum from positive to negative scenarios of United Kingdom withdraw from European Union. Correlation coefficients are calculated and statistical analyses as temporal functions are conducted for gross domestic product of United Kingdom, compared to gross domestic product of European Union with and without United Kingdom. Aspect of trade, import, export, impact on gross domestic product and financial industry are considered with the goal to predict possible economic future for both sides of negotiation. Ekonomski uticaji Bregzit-a na EU27 i na UKApstrakt: U ovom radu je istražena procena ekonomskih posledica Bregzita na 27 zemalja članica Evropske Unije i Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo. Proces je aktuelan i izazovan, jer su neke od pregovaračkih pozicija još uvek u toku. Relevantni ekonomski parametri se izračunavaju, analiziraju i diskutuju, kao i spektar od pozitivnih do negativnih scenarija povlačenja Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva iz Evropske Unije. Koeficijenti korelacije su sračunati i urađene statističke analize kao vremenske funkcije za bruto društveni proizvod Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva, u poređenju sa bruto društvenim proizvodom Evropske Unije sa i bez Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva. Razmatraju se aspekt trgovine, uvoza, izvoza, uticaja na bruto društveni proizvod i finansijsku industriju sa ciljem da se predvidi moguća ekonomska budućnost za obe strane pregovora.

show abstract

The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU

Cited by 51 publications

References 17 publications

Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios

Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios

Brexit and its economic consequences

Economic impacts of Brexit to EU27 and UK

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About