Modelling the potential distribution of arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti under current and future climate scenarios in Taiwan, China

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti is one of the most important mosquito species and is a common disease-transmitting pest in tropical areas. Various infectious arbovirus diseases can be transmitted by Ae. aegypti. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of disease vectors into wider geographical areas. To better understand the current ecological niche range and possible future expansion of Ae. aegypti, an ecological niche modelling approach was adopted to predict its current and future potential habitat in Taiwan, China. 30 arcsec (approx. 1 × 1 km) were made by our model. Ae. aegypti was predicted to expand its habitat in varying degrees out of its current niche range under different climate scenarios for the future 21st century. Winter temperature and dry season precipitation were considered as important predictors among climate variables. Croplands, pasture, forested lands and urban lands were important land-use variables. RESULTS: Based on observed occurrence records and environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, predictions with a high resolution of CONCLUSION:Ae. aegypti is expected to establish new habitats out of its current niche range under the trend of global climate change. The extent of habitat expansion varies under different climate scenarios. Appropriate measures should be taken to prevent its expansion to a broader scale. Our study has important strategic implications for mosquito surveillance and the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.

Global occurrence data improve potential distribution models for Aedes japonicus japonicus in non‐native regions

“…In this compiled data set of 12 977 occurrence records, many duplicates and occurrences in close proximity were identified and removed for subsequent analysis to avoid spatial autocorrelation ( cf . Liu et al …”

“…In this compiled data set of 12 977 occurrence records, many duplicates and occurrences in close proximity were identified and removed for subsequent analysis to avoid spatial autocorrelation (cf . Liu et al 40 ). We considered only one occurrence record per grid cell (spatial resolution of 5 arcmin as for climatic conditions, see below) even if more than one occurrence was recorded, resulting in 7406 grid cells, i.e.…”

Larvicidal activity of substituted chalcones against Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) and non‐target organisms

“…[18][19][20][21] Despite the diversity of strategies available to control the vector population, the incidence of arboviruses has increased and correlated with climate changes that favor the mosquitoes proliferation in new areas. 22 One of the chemical control alternatives that has been proposed is the use of products capable of killing Ae. aegypti larvae.…”

Present and future climatic suitability for dengue fever in Africa

“…aegypti related to dengue fever incidence in Africa. Previous studies demonstrated that climate changes have increased the burden of many vector-borne diseases [18,31,33,34]. Studies indicating that the risk of dengue fever incidence is expected to increase globally under future climate change predictions [6,31,35].…”