Modelling the potential distribution of <i>Bemisia tabaci</i> in Europe in light of the climate change scenario

Gilioli, Gianni; Pasquali, Sara; Parisi, Simone; Winter, Stephan

doi:10.1002/ps.3734

Cited by 51 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…Recent studies on B. tabaci (as well as other ectotherms) response to climate change (e.g., Deutsch et al 2008, Kingsolver et al 2013, Gilioli et al 2014) generated future temperature conditions using current climate surface temperature data to which a delta was added, representing the mean change in temperature derived from climate models. Although these altered data series are able to capture the mean change, the actual future temperature data series will most probably differ from these means due to natural variability.…”

Section: Advantages Of the Stochastic Weather Generator Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter‐ and intra‐annual variations

Zidon

Tsueda²,

Morin

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

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Section: Advantages Of the Stochastic Weather Generator Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter‐ and intra‐annual variations

Zidon

Tsueda²,

Morin

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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“…For example, the Cfb (warm temperate, fully humid, warm summer) climate zone found primarily in western Europe and southern Australia covered 2.46% of the global land surface around 1900, 2.62% around the year 2000, and under a high emissions scenario could cover 2.54% by 2100 (143). The mechanistic approach uses ecophysiological models of varying complexity, describing organismal responses to environmental conditions that can either be determined experimentally or inferred from known distributions (75), and have been widely applied to CPPs (19,50,79,83). For example, the CLIMEX model uses 19 parameters describing growth and stress responses to temperature and moisture (75), whereas a model of fungal infection probability uses three temperature variables and one moisture variable (97).…”

Section: Improved Climate Data and Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Range-Expanding Pests and Pathogens in a Warming World

Bebber

2015

Annu. Rev. Phytopathol.

243

177

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Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

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“…The establishment phase is described by means of a population dynamics model describing the population growth of the propagule population and the local dispersion eventually resulting in the generation of many locally establishing populations. In the proposed approach, simple exponential growth has been considered for the vector insect (Equation (1)), but the model can be extended to account for the more complex population dynamics of B. tabaci, as presented in Gilioli et al (27) The importance of describing more complex patterns of population growth and spread (24) will be considered in a future work.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Strategies for Interception, Detection, and Eradication in Plant Biosecurity

et al. 2014

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The introduction of invasive species causes damages from the economic and ecological point of view. Interception of plant pests and eradication of the established populations are two management options to prevent or limit the risk posed by an invasive species. Management options generate costs related to the interception at the point of entry, and the detection and eradication of established field populations. Risk managers have to decide how to allocate resources between interception, field detection, containment, and eradication minimizing the expected total costs. In this work is considered an optimization problem aiming at determining the optimal allocation of resources to minimize the expected total costs of the introduction of Bemisia tabaci-transmitted viruses in Europe. The optimization problem takes into account a probabilistic model for the estimation of the percentage of viruliferous insect populations arriving through the trade of commodities, and a population dynamics model describing the process of the vector populations' establishment and spread. The time of field detection of viruliferous insect populations is considered as a random variable. The solution of the optimization problem allows to determine the optimal allocation of the search effort between interception and detection/eradication. The behavior of the search effort as a function of efficacy or search in interception and in detection is then analyzed. The importance of the vector population growth rate and the probability of virus establishment are also considered in the analysis of the optimization problem.

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Modelling the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Europe in light of the climate change scenario

Cited by 51 publications

References 80 publications

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter‐ and intra‐annual variations

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter‐ and intra‐annual variations

Range-Expanding Pests and Pathogens in a Warming World

Optimal Strategies for Interception, Detection, and Eradication in Plant Biosecurity

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