Modelling the regional potential for reaching carbon neutrality in Finland: Sustainable forestry, energy use and biodiversity protection

Abstract

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426–452 TgC) and sequestration potential (− 12 to − 17.5 TgCO2eq a−1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation.

Leveraging research infrastructure co-location to evaluate constraints on terrestrial carbon cycling in northern European forests

“…Holistic assessments of the terrestrial carbon sink require synthesis of information from environmental and societal domains. In the environmental (biophysical) domain, changes in above-ground carbon storage can be estimated in a number of ways including forest and soil inventory measurements (Neumann et al 2016 ), upscaling of GHG flux measurements (Chi et al 2019 ), satellite data assimilation (Smith et al 2020 ) and modelling (Holmberg et al 2019 ; Forsius et al 2023 ). Such estimates must be complemented with measurements of belowground carbon storage and turnover as well as observations of relevant societal drivers.…”

“…An application of the dynamic forest carbon balance PREBAS model (Minunno et al 2019 ) provides a relevant example of data aggregation and extrapolation in this context. PREBAS was initially calibrated to intensive data collected at ICOS sites, and then calibrated to data sets from the Finnish national forest inventory to provide national-scale VRPs of changes in GHG fluxes and carbon storage in Finland under different management and climate scenarios (Minunno et al 2019 ; Forsius et al 2023 ; Mäkelä et al 2023 ). Cabon et al ( 2022 ) highlighted the possibility of new insights when RIs are co-located.…”

“…A complete understanding of the terrestrial carbon sink requires knowledge about people living and working in the forest and the decisions they make. Much of the Fennoscandic forest is intensively managed for timber production and increasingly for other ecosystem services (Högbom et al 2021 ) and in both Sweden (Petersson et al 2022 ) and Finland (Forsius et al 2023 ) the forestry sector is an important player in achieving carbon goals.…”

Effect of forest management choices on carbon sequestration and biodiversity at national scale

“…The simulations were carried out for 2015-2050. This period was chosen because we wanted to link the results with projected industrial emissions that were available up to 2050 (Forsius et al 2023). The simulations were conducted by administrative region.…”

Modeling the Consumption of Main Fossil Fuels in Greenhouse Gas Emissions in European Countries, Considering Gross Domestic Product and Population

“…The study conducted by Wenlong, Z., et al [25] attempts to empirically analyze the environmental impact of certain important factors, e.g., energy efficiency, technological innovation, trade openness and institutional quality, in 10 Asian economies over the period 1995-2018. The researchers Forsius, M., et al [26] integrated the results of three spatially distributed modeling systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to assess the potential to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035 in Finland at both national and regional scales, by simultaneously considering the conservation goals included in the EU biodiversity strategy. In another study, researchers examine how population growth, wealth and energy technology factors influence CO 2 , CH 4 and NO 2 emissions from the power sector in Bangladesh.…”