Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) –  Part 1: Observational analysis

Vanderkelen, Inne; Lipzig, Nicole Van; Thiery, Wim

doi:10.5194/hess-22-5509-2018

Cited by 73 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Based on reference water balance variable data for 1956/57 to 1977/78 (Gibb & Partners, 1984), it is estimated that annual rainfall directly into the lake is increasing. The rainfall pattern and lake water level changed over the period 1950 to 1980 (Kite, 1981(Kite, , 1982Sene & Plinston, 1994) and in the period 1995 to 2007 (Vanderkelen et al, 2018). In particular, in the period January 1960 to June 1964, mean annual rainfall increased by 33% and lake water level rose by around 2.5 m (Kite, 1982;Sene & Plinston, 1994).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1). Table 1 shows the percentage contribution of the main contributors to lake inflow and outflow according to the WRMA/LVBC for 1950-2000 time span, the Sewagudde data (2009) for 1950-2004 time span, and data reported by Vanderkelen et al (2018) for 1993-2014 time span (reflecting a later period in the lake's history). The WRMA/LVBC and Sewagudde data differed significantly in terms of outflow fraction, but this is really a difference in evaporation, since outflow is reliably measured.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The water level fluctuation has changed (Yin & Nicholson, 1998) and the major sources of uncertainty in different parameters of water level were studied (Kite, 1981;Piper et al, 1986;Sene & Plinston, 1994;Smith & Semazzi, 2014;Swenson & Wahr, 2009;Tate et al, 2004;Yin & Nicholson, 1998). The water level is determined by tributary inflow, lake outflow, regulated by the Nalubaale dam, rain over the lake and evaporation from the lake (Vanderkelen, van Lipzig, & Thiery, 2018). Regular monitoring of lake water level is crucial for the basin's population because the water level has influence on local community access to water, food via fishing, and transport (Semazzi, 2011).…”

Section: Uncertainty In Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the period 1950-2000, compared to (1938) the outflow increased by 55%, 0% for inflow, over-lake precipitation by 47%, and lake evaporation by 37%. More recent satellite-derived estimates for precipitation over the lake are available (Hasan & Jin, 2014;Swenson & Wahr, 2009), but there is still some uncertainty in evaporation and inflow estimation (Vanderkelen et al, 2018). The time-series monthly variation of precipitation is much larger than the monthly variation of evaporation.…”

Section: Correlationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydro-meteorological processes driving solute transport in Lake Victoria

Paul

Oppelstrup

2020

Water Science

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This study explores by a vertically integrated tracer transport model, hydro-meteorological event characteristics and their influence on solute transport. Changes in Hydro-meteorological processes and increasing frequency of extreme weather events are responsible for changing the lake water balance, influencing streamflow variations, and lake tracer transport. We compare historical data over a long time with model data from a vertically integrated model in COMSOL Multiphysics. We consider water balance, sources of data uncertainty, correlations, extreme rain and inflow years, and seasonal variations. The lake transport model has estimated soluble loading and transportation. The results showed there are strong correlations between tributary inflows and precipitation, and between lake outflow and water level. It was found that "events" influence lake level fluctuations. The solute transport was shown to vary more in wet periods. Modeled transportations were higher in Kenya and Uganda lake zones than in Tanzanian zones. The major inflow, from the Kagera river, appears to strongly influence lake solute transportation, so the composition of this river must be considered. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uncertainty In Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Correlationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydro-meteorological processes driving solute transport in Lake Victoria

Paul

Oppelstrup

2020

Water Science

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“…One may wonder whether the shortening of the periodicity of El Nino is not another effect of climate change. Documented some scientific studies (Inogwabini et al, 2006;IRD, 2002;Sidibe et al, 2018) show that water levels dropped over several years in the recent past in the "Cuvette Centrale (Inogwabini et al, 2006;IRD, 2002) and across other African regions (Sidibe et al, 2018;Vanderkelen, Van Lipzig, & Thiery, 2018). If these trends are kept constant over years, parts of Africa and parts of the Congo Basin may dry out several generations from now.…”

Section: Effects Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 98%

The changing water cycle: Freshwater in the Congo

Inogwabini

2020

WIREs Water

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Climate change in Africa is manifesting itself in the distribution and quantities of freshwater which are becoming serious security issues. Central Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with its abundant water, is caught in the middle of strategies to curb future effects of droughts, water scarcity and flooding across Africa. This article reviewed the current status of water and related biodiversity in DRC using a political economy, biological data and available social knowledge. Freshwaters hold the potentials to significantly contribute to the economy of DRC. However, fish stocks in some stretches of the Congo River are fished at intensities that exceed their productivity potential; water depths are decreasing in some others. Sources of the freshwaters of the Congo Basin cross borders of many countries but proper transboundary management plans to support cross‐border sustainable management of freshwaters are lacking. Stakeholders do not own freshwater sustainable management plans; growing populations and the drying up of large portions of Africa make that freshwater of the Congo, rather than being a uniting factor of the region, instead a security threat that Congo River Basin countries need to care about immediately. Caution should prevail in ways in which the freshwaters of the Congo Basin are exploited. Particularly, lack of in‐depth ecological knowledge about the biology and the mechanics of the Congo Basin's freshwaters call for careful scrutiny of the idea to export the freshwaters of Congo to refill the Lake Chad Basin as suggested by some politicians, since this could lead to an unprecedented ecological cataclysm. This article is categorized under: Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness Science of Water > Water Extremes Engineering Water > Planning Water

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Aircraft observations and sub‐km modelling of the lake–land breeze circulation over Lake Victoria

Woodhams

Barrett

Marsham

et al. 2021

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The lake–land breeze circulation over Lake Victoria was observed in unprecedented detail with a research aircraft during the HyVic pilot flight campaign in January 2019. An evening and morning flight observed the lake and land breezes respectively under mostly dry conditions. The circulation was observed at various heights along a transect across the lake and onshore in Tanzania. Profiles of the lower troposphere were recorded by dropsondes over the lake and land. Convection‐permitting MetUM simulations with different horizontal grid‐spacings (including sub‐km) were run for the flight periods. During the evening flight, the aircraft crossed the lake breeze front over land at 1627 LT, approximately 50 km to the east of the lake shore, recording a 6 g·kg−1 decrease in specific humidity and reversal in wind direction over ∼5 km. During the morning flight, a shallow land breeze was observed across the eastern shore at 0545 LT. At least one region of increased and deeper moisture (previously seen in simulations but never observed) was sampled over the lake surface between 0527 and 0855 LT. This bulge of moisture was likely formed from the lifting of near‐surface moist air above the lake by low‐level convergence. The observations and model simulations suggest that low‐level convergence occurred at the leading edge of the land breeze, which had detached from the main land breeze and independently propagated westward across the lake with wave‐like characteristics. The MetUM simulations were able to reasonably reproduce the lake breeze front, bulge feature, and its propagation, which is a major achievement given the sparse observational data for model initialisation in this region. However, some timing, resolution and boundary‐layer depth biases require further investigation. Overall, this pilot campaign provided an unprecedented snapshot of the Lake Victoria lake–land breeze circulation and motivates a more comprehensive field campaign in the future.

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Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 1: Observational analysis

Cited by 73 publications

References 55 publications

Hydro-meteorological processes driving solute transport in Lake Victoria

Hydro-meteorological processes driving solute transport in Lake Victoria

The changing water cycle: Freshwater in the Congo

Aircraft observations and sub‐km modelling of the lake–land breeze circulation over Lake Victoria

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