Modelling UK energy system response to natural gas supply infrastructure failures

Abstract

A modelling approach is used to investigate the impacts of disruptions to natural gas supplies on the UK energy system and the effectiveness of strategic infrastructure investments which could help to mitigate these impacts. The combined gas and electricity network model is described. It is then used to project the development of the UK gas and electricity networks out to 2030 under two different scenarios for the wider development of the UK energy system. A set of plausible gas supply disruptions associated with three major gas facilities, lasting from 5 to 90 days, are hypothesised to occur in mid-winter 2025. The impacts are assessed in terms of shortfalls in natural gas deliveries and the costs of wider adjustments to the gas and electricity networks. Finally, the benefits arising from a number of strategic, mitigating investments in facilities such as gas storage or expanded liquefied natural gas import capacity are assessed. Although a full cost-benefit analysis was not possible, efficacy is assessed in terms of the frequency with which disruptions would need to occur to justify the mitigating investments.

Towards Extensive Definition and Planning of Energy Resilience in Buildings in Cold Climate

“…City Level Building Level Climate/Region Context Referenc Ability to absorb, adapt and absorb to the disruptive event ✓ ✗ Mild, hot [38] Ability to respond to the change and returning to stability ✓ ✗ ✗ [36] Ability to minimize the interruption caused by the hazardous event x ✗ United States of America [39] Ability to plan for, recover from and adapt to adverse event over time ✓ ✗ ✗ [40] Ability to tolerate disruptive event and continue to provide affordable service to the end user ✓ ✓ United Kingdom [41] Ability to have a safe energy supply chain that can resist shocks and adapts ✓ ✗ European [42] Ability to predict, absorb, adapt and recover fast from the disruptive event ✓ ✗ United Kingdom [43] Ability to withstand disruptive event with high impact and low probability; recover fast after the event; learn to adapt and prevent impact ✓ ✗ Mild, hot [44] Ability to maintain reliable operation during extreme event ✓ ✗ United Kingdom [45,46] Ability to meet the desired performance levels during the disruptive event as it is in normal operation…”

“…Table 1 presents the energy resilience definition found in the literature for the sector of built environments on cities and buildings' scales in different climate regions. tive event and dable service to r ✓ ✓ United Kingdom [41] gy supply chain and adapts…”

Physical–cyber–human framework‐based resilience evaluation toward urban power system: Case study from China

“…First proposed by Panteli and Mancarella (2015a) in 2015, the resilience trapezoid sees resilience as a time‐dependent function and provides four metrics to evaluate how resilient the system is (Panteli, Trakas et al., 2017): how fast and how low resilience drops during the disturbance progress ; how extensive is the postdisturbance degraded state ; and how promptly the network recover during the restore state . Because this method is an extension of the resilience triangle (Chaudry et al., 2011) and can provide multiphase dynamic assessments based on objective data, many recent studies have applied this method to evaluate the threat of extreme weather events on power system resilience.…”

Representing power sector variability and the integration of variable renewables in long-term energy-economy models using residual load duration curves

“…Other highly-resolved production cost models are designed for this purpose, which can be soft-coupled to a long-term model (see for example REF. [54]- [56]). The error made by using only a long-term model depends on both the general modeling of power sector variability (VRE and load) and the use of additional constraints to implicitly account for flexibility.…”