A modelling approach is used to investigate the impacts of disruptions to natural gas supplies on the UK energy system and the effectiveness of strategic infrastructure investments which could help to mitigate these impacts. The combined gas and electricity network model is described. It is then used to project the development of the UK gas and electricity networks out to 2030 under two different scenarios for the wider development of the UK energy system. A set of plausible gas supply disruptions associated with three major gas facilities, lasting from 5 to 90 days, are hypothesised to occur in mid-winter 2025. The impacts are assessed in terms of shortfalls in natural gas deliveries and the costs of wider adjustments to the gas and electricity networks. Finally, the benefits arising from a number of strategic, mitigating investments in facilities such as gas storage or expanded liquefied natural gas import capacity are assessed. Although a full cost-benefit analysis was not possible, efficacy is assessed in terms of the frequency with which disruptions would need to occur to justify the mitigating investments.

BackgroundIn recent years, the issue of problematic Internet pornography use (PIPU) among adolescents has become increasingly prominent, attracting widespread attention from society. Family functioning has been recognized as a protective factor for PIPU, but the underlying mediating and moderating mechanisms remain unclear. The purpose of this study is (a) to investigate the mediating role of self-esteem in the relationship between family functioning and PIPU, and (b) to examine the moderating role of the need to belong in this mediating pathway.MethodsA total of 771 high school students (Mage = 16.19, SD = 0.90) were surveyed using the Problematic Internet Pornography Use Scale, Family Assessment Device, Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, and the Need to Belong Scale.ResultsCorrelation analysis showed a significant negative correlation between family functioning and PIPU (r = −0.25, p < 0.001), a significant positive correlation between self-esteem and family functioning (r = 0.38, p < 0.001), a significant negative correlation between self-esteem and PIPU (r = −0.24, p < 0.001), and a significant positive correlation between need to belong and PIPU (r = 0.16, p < 0.01). Mediation analysis showed that self-esteem partially mediated the relationship between family functioning and PIPU, with a mediation effect of −0.06. Further moderated mediation analysis showed that for adolescents with higher need to belong, the mediating effect of self-esteem was stronger.ConclusionsFor adolescents with high belonging needs who are at high risk for PIPU, good family functioning may have a protective effect by boosting self-esteem.

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