Modelling Urban Population Densities in Beijing 1982-90: Suburbanisation and its Causes

Abstract

The existing empirical research of urban population density is rich on developed countries but much less so on developing countries. On cities in a planned economy such as that of China, very little is reported. Part of the reason is the lack of reliable data sources. This research models the population densities in Beijing 1982-90. Data are from the third and fourth national population censuses in 1982 and 1990 respectively, and are aggregated at the level of sub-district (jie-dao). Spatial boundaries of these sub-districts are obtained from various sources of local governments and numerous field trips. The research shows that the negative exponential function also fits the density distributions in Beijing, the density gradient becomes flatter, and the city-centre intercept drops over time. The results are consistent with the findings on Western cities, implying that even a socialist city cannot escape the universal forces shaping urban structure. In addition, GIS surface modelling is used to analyse the spatial patterns. While central-city sub-districts have experienced significant loss of population, suburban sub-districts have gained growth at various scales. This signals the beginning of suburbanisation in Beijing. However, some of the causes are different from those in Western countries.

A Comparative Study of Suburbanization in United States and China

“…In addition, some scholars differentiate the process and consequences of the two nations. The beginning of the suburbanization process in China, was the same as the earlier process in the United States, that factories, warehouses, residential places in the city centers moved to the suburban areas for cheaper land (Wang & Zhou, 1999a;Zhou, 1997). However, the difference is that the land in the city centers in China has been replaced by more profitable tertiary service such as commerce, banking, hotels and office buildings and with certainly more modern design.…”

“…Since the 1978 economic reforms (Note 1) in China, some metropolises, along with on-going urbanization, show a trend of suburbanization. Due to its prominent and inevitable impact on urban structure and social and economic development, this suburbanization has aroused wide concern among scholars, planners, and politicians, and also generated a rich body of literature (Feng, 2001;Fleisher, 2010;Silu Li & Tang, 1998;Wang & Zhou, 1999b;Wenyu Wu, 2010;T. Zhang, 2000b;Zhou, 1995;Zhou & Logan, 2008).The views on suburbanization of Chinese cities vary; however, most of them draw conclusions based on the western theories, especially those of the United States.…”

Monocentric or Polycentric? The Urban Spatial Structure of Employment in Beijing

“…Many studies have focused on the spatial distribution of Beijing's residential population, concluding that, in general, the city has shown a trend toward polycentricity and suburbanization [18][19][20][21][22][23]. However, just because a city's residential population has suburbanized does not necessarily mean that its urban spatial structure has also changed to a polycentric form, especially if employment is still concentrated in the city center.…”

The Evaluation of Trade Area Models and Analysis Methods for Site Selection from International Quick Service Restaurants Perspective

“…Economic and social changes transform urban spaces constantly, leading to further changes not only in globalized and culturally homogenized cities but also in the development policies, strategies and physical structures of international corporations which grow continuously and independently of states (Wang and Zhou 1999). The sustainability of rapidly expanding and rapidly consumed urban spaces depends on reasonable site selection decisions based on economic development strategies that are explicitly devised to respond to the needs of such rapid urbanization.…”