Models for forecasting the price of wheat and maize in Serbia

Abstract

This paper examines the annual average price of two basic and economically most important cereals in Serbia: wheat and maize. The purpose of this research is to predict the future pricing trends on the basis of the wheat and maize price analysis over a longer period of time.Firstly, the average annual prices expressed in dinars per ton were converted into the prices expressed in EUR. Subsequently, the prices thus obtained were processed using descriptive statistics, and utilized to make predictions for the next five years . The predictions were made using the ARIMA model.The forecast obtained indicates that the prices of maize will not be as stable as those of wheat. In the forecast period, the maize price will range from EUR 127.5 to 134 per ton. In the last two years of the period under consideration, the price of maize will stabilize at around EUR 132 per ton. REZIMEPredmet istraživanja u ovom radu su prošečne godišnje cene dve osnovne i ekonomski najvažnije žitarice u Srbiji: pšenice i kukuruza. Cilj istraživanja je da se na bazi analize cena pšenice i kukuruza u dužem vremenskom periodu predvidi njihovo kretaćnje u budućnosti. U prvom koraku, prosečne godišnje cene koje su izražene u dinarima po toni, prevedene su u cene izražene u evrima. Podaci o prosečnim cenama dobijeni su iz statističkih publikacija, a podaci o prosečnoj vrednosti evra u period od 2002. do 2017. godine od Narodne banke Srbije. Ovako izražene cene prvo su obrađene na osnovu deskriptivne statistike, a zatim su predviđene njihove vrednosti za narednih pet godina . Predviđanje je srovedeno pomoću ARIMA modela. Kada je u pitanju cena pšenice, deskriptivna analiza je pokazala da je prosečna cena pšenice iznosila 135,30 evra/toni, a po godinama se kretala u interval od 90,50 (2005.godine) do 190,85 evra/toni (2012). Cena pšenice pokazuje tendenciju porasta u analiziranom period po prosečnoj godišnjoj stopi od 1,34%. Predviđanje pokazuje relativno stabilnu cenu pšenice koja će se kretati oko 139 evra po toni. Deskriptivna analiza cene kukuruza je pokazala da je prosečna godišnja cena kukuruza iznosila 123,90 evra/t. Po godinama analiziranog perioda kretala se u interval od 77,84 (2006.godine) do 184,04evra/t (2012). I cena kukuruza pokazuje tendenciju porasta po prosečnoj godišnjoj stopi od 2,53%. Predviđanje pokazuje da cena kukuruza nije stabilna kao cena pšenice. U predikcionom period ona se kreće u intervalu od 127,5 do 134 evra/toni. U poslednje dve godine cena kukuruza će se stabilizovati na nivou od oko 132 evra/toni.

State and tendencies of production characteristics of wheat and maize in Serbia

“…The descriptive statistics method was used in collecting, arranging and presenting data for analysis in this research. By calculating individual indicators, descriptive statistics provide basic information important for getting acquainted with the characteristics of the time series (Novković et al, 2019). The tools of descriptive analysis used to observe the production parameters of wheat and corn in the period 2005-2020 in Serbia are the average value, the interval of variation (minimum and maximum), coefficient of variation (CV) and average rate of change (r).…”

Analysis and forecast of the production parameters of major cereal crops in Serbia

“…A number of studies have dealt with the forecasting of the production and economic parameters of agricultural products. Novković et al (2013Novković et al ( , 2013aNovković et al ( , 2013b focused on the forecasting and development of the production parameters of potato. Michel and Makowski (2013) have compared statistical models for analyzing wheat yield time series.…”

Tendencies and prediction of industrial plant production in Serbia

“…Tendencies of increased production were present in tomatoes, peas, onions, peppers, beans, carrots and cucumbers. Decreased tendencies were present in potatoes and watermelons, while cabbage had a tendency to stagnate Novković et al 2013. have analyzed the tendencies of vegetable production in Vojvodina in the period 2001-2010.…”