Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the cost factors that infl uence the export of the Czech Republic, and to estimate models suitable for quantitative analysis of export and its prediction. According to the macroeconomic theory, the fundamental export factors include foreign demand, domestic and foreign price level and exchange rate. Foreign demand refl ects the business cycle of foreign economy, price levels and exchange rate characterize the competitiveness of the exported goods, and the exchange rate determines, among others, the production costs through the prices of imported crucial inputs. Several models are applied to set of these variables, and their impact on the export dynamics of the Czech Republic is evaluated.

An Empirical Verification of Export Function Focused on the Impact of EUR/CZK Exchange Rate

“…Následující výčet publikovaných analytických prací zabývajících se exportní funkcí ČR naznačuje, že až na jednu výjimku se jedná o práce staršího data (Kreidl, 1995;Kapička, 1997;Hlušek a Singer, 1999;Tomšík, 2001;Pánková 2003;Havrlant a Hušek 2011). Rané výzkumy na krátkých časových řadách postihují i období československé koruny po roce 1989, přičemž zachycují i vliv trojí devalvace koruny v průběhu roku 1990.…”

Czech Exports and German GDP: A Closer Look

“…Kaus (2008) investigates the determinants of Chinese and Indian exports on both the demand and supply sides, and concludes that the general level of foreign income in importing countries has been identifi ed as a statistically signifi cant explanatory variable of exports. Particularly in the case of Czech exports, the relationship between exports and foreign income has been investigated, for instance, by Tomšík (2000Tomšík ( , 2001 and Havrlant, Hušek (2011). All 3 studies have come to the conclusion that Czech exports depend on the GDP of the main trading partner(s).…”

Application of the Decision Support Model to Czech Exports

“…As indicated by Havrlant et al (2011), among the most important factors driving the Czech export are foreign demand (especially demand from EU countries), cost factors and the exchange rate. Cost factors and the exchange rate play a substantial role in the dynamics of the Czech export because they make up the price competitiveness of the country.…”