The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic sectors in a very heterogeneous way. In the early stages of the economic lockdown, only limited economic data, if any, related to the event were available. With the government's discretionary measures to contain the infection, it became obvious that some sectors will suffer more than others. We have used this information within the input-output framework to calibrate demand shocks to individual sectors and to obtain early estimates of the impact on sectoral and overall GDP. Given the high level of uncertainty, we designed three scenarios, reflecting the severity of the shock, its sectoral distribution, and the time needed for recovery, and applied to the Saudi economy. The negative impact on headline GDP in 2020 is estimated to range from −4.8% to −9.8% compared to the baseline level, while the government's fiscal countermeasures result in a positive effect of some 2.5% in real GDP. The study also shows how to accommodate a qualitative shift in economic conditions given the stillevolving pandemic. We consider the potential situation of a second wave of the infection that would enforce a protracted lockdown and imply second-round effects.

This paper aims to analyze the cost factors that infl uence the export of the Czech Republic, and to estimate models suitable for quantitative analysis of export and its prediction. According to the macroeconomic theory, the fundamental export factors include foreign demand, domestic and foreign price level and exchange rate. Foreign demand refl ects the business cycle of foreign economy, price levels and exchange rate characterize the competitiveness of the exported goods, and the exchange rate determines, among others, the production costs through the prices of imported crucial inputs. Several models are applied to set of these variables, and their impact on the export dynamics of the Czech Republic is evaluated.

The King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) is a non-profit global institution dedicated to independent research into energy economics, policy, technology and the environment across all types of energy. KAPSARC's mandate is to advance the understanding of energy challenges and opportunities facing the world today and tomorrow, through unbiased, independent, and high-caliber research for the benefit of society. KAPSARC is located in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This publication is also available in Arabic. 3 Saudi Vision 2030 Dynamic Input-Output Table: Combining Macroeconomic Forecasts With the RAS Method This paper describes in detail a framework developed for long-term projections of input-output tables (IOT). It shows how to combine macroeconomic forecasts with the RAS method to incorporate national plans for economic transformation and diversification, such as Saudi Vision 2030. Key economic targets of Vision 2030 are presented, as they form the basis of this particular research project. The major advantages and drawbacks of the IOT projection methodology are discussed, along with potential improvements and further research directions. The paper describes the use of the framework for medium-term impact analysis and the compilation of long-term scenarios. The paper indicates how IOT projections form a solid quantitative basis to assess the progress made in achieving a more diverse and sustainable economy.

The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the traditional hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. Economic conditions may change radically either throughout a decade or within months. The question is whether there is no other option for a hydrocarbon resource-rich economy than to be held hostage to the fluctuations in global oil prices. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the income base and significantly reduce the dependence on oil revenues. The Saudi Vision 2030 represents a complex plan for substantial socioeconomic adjustments that are about to move the economy toward a more diversified and sustainable one. This discussion paper examines the preferred diversification paths for the Saudi economy in more detail, with a focus on the foreseen adjustments in the sectoral composition of the economy along with broader macroeconomic shifts. The evaluation of the foreseen diversification impacts is based on the updated Vision 2030 Input-Output Table that maps the changing structure of the Saudi economy over the coming decade. We discuss the assumed expansion of the diversification frontrunners, their changing contribution to the overall economic activity and identify the preferred diversification paths for the Saudi economy. The advances in economic diversification are measured by applying the Shannon-Weaver index to sectoral GDP and household income. The expected sectoral changes are wide-reaching, so the basic macroeconomic relations are also subject to adjustments. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to examine the effects of the foreseen diversification on the resilience of the Saudi economy to external shocks.

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