Modification of belief in evidential causal networks

A multi-method approach to building causal performance maps from expert knowledge

“…To help participants organize their knowledge of performance by relevant features, we framed the task as modeling causality among the revealed KSFs (e.g., Attarwala and Basden, 1985;Luft and Shields, 1999;McErlean et al, 1999). Thus, this method did not require participants to recall all previously stored or encoded information, a cognitive task that can be impeded by memory storage and retrieval processes (Spector and Davidsen, 2002).…”

Use of evidential reasoning for eliciting bayesian subjective probabilities in human reliability analysis: A maritime case

“…In addition, conventional mathematical methods are simply not applicable. Therefore, heuristic methods based on 'causal linkage' rather than detailed equations present a feasible way to proceed at present (McErleani et al, 1999). It is particularly important when the aforementioned BN-based HRA models fail to cope with situations where incomplete conditional probabilities are raised/assigned by multiple experts.…”

Data transformation in the evidential reasoning‐based decision making process

“…A probability mass function to every subset X of Θ ( X ⊆Θ) can be assigned, denoted by m ( X ). m ( X ) is called a basic probability assignment (BPA) function where m ( X ): 2 Θ →[0, 1] such that m (φ)=0 and where 0 m ( X )1, for all X ⊆Θ (Yang and Singh, 1994; McErlean et al, 1999). m ( X ) indicates that portion of the total belief is exactly (i.e.…”