Use of evidential reasoning for eliciting bayesian subjective probabilities in human reliability analysis: A maritime case

Abstract

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Short Sea Shipping on the West Coast of Korea: Keys to Activating the Shipping Industry in Preparation for Korea Unification Era

“…For these reasons, BN has been used in the maritime field with forward (or predictive) and backward (diagnostic) analysis (Jiang et al 2020) in areas including maritime accidents (Akhtar and Utne 2014;Jiang et al 2020;Wang and Yang 2018), maritime risk/safety (Trucco et al 2008;Yang et al 2019), maritime supply chain risks (Wan et al 2019), port state control inspection (Yang et al 2018a;Yang et al 2018b), predicting a containership's arrival punctuality (Salleh et al 2017), analysing tanker shipping bankruptcy risks (Wang et al 2017), research on improving the resilience of a seaport system (John et al 2016), analysing slow steaming (Abdul Rahman et al 2015;Rahman et al 2012), container port safety evaluation (Alyami et al 2014), assessing the operational reliability (Salleh et al 2014), and estimation of navigational risks (Zhang et al 2013).…”

An Evaluation of the Effects of Human Factors on Pilotage Operations Safety

“…Furthermore, several methods have been employed in studies on accident analysis and risk analysis, and safety assessment, including Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method (CREAM) (e.g. Demirel (2020), Yang et al, (2019)), Fuzzy AHP (FAHP) (e.g. Hsu, 2012), Bayesian network (BN) (e.g.…”

Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

“…Zhou et al (2018) proposed a fuzzy and Bayesian network CREAM model to analyse human reliability and to control the risk level caused by human factors. Yang et al (2019) present a novel approach for combining evidential reasoning with BN to facilitate human reliability analysis. Moreover, fuzzy evidential reasoning approach has been applied in the CREAM model to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty exists in practice (Wu et al 2017).…”

“…These methods can facilitate risk assessment with uncertainties using objective data and subjective knowledge (e.g. Wu et al 2019;Wu et al 2018;Yang et al 2019;Li et al 2014). .…”

“…different databases to ensure the consistency of the input data in this study. In addition, the investigation reports with detailed information were applied to help better understand the progress of the accident(Akhtar and Utne 2014;Wang et al 2018;Yang et al 2019).…”