Moisture fluxes conducive to central European extreme precipitation events

Gvoždíková, Blanka; Müller, Miloslav

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105182

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…As shown in our previous study (Gvoždíková and Müller, 2021), the combination of the vertical velocity and moisture flux worked better than the moisture flux as a potential predictor of extreme precipitation in central Europe. We introduced a variable, which is here referred to as the accumulated ascending moisture flux T * d (kg·s −1 ) and reflects the total amount of transported water vapour during day d over grid points with extra high upward vertical velocity.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 54%

“…According to our previous study (Gvoždíková and Müller, 2021), EPEs from 1979 to 2013 consisted of three types of event of different moisture flux conditions that prevail during their lifetimes. A geometric mean of relative moisture flux values (separately from each of the four cardinal directions) was used to derive a single-value representation of the moisture flux over multiple grid points.…”

Section: Study Area and Reference Precipitation Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given that some EPEs were directly associated with moisture flux anomalies in our previous study (Gvoždíková and Müller, 2021), it is also possible to use the combination of vertical velocity and moisture flux – the accumulated ascending moisture flux – as a predictor of heavy precipitation. The aim of this study was to determine practical predictability (Lorenz, 2006) and forecast skill of mean daily accumulated ascending moisture flux and compare it with the forecast skill of one‐day precipitation extremity, which are both derived from ERA‐Interim reanalysis and forecasts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, extreme precipitation always requires moisture supply supported by a sustained lifting of air, which has been considered in our previous study (Gvoždíková and Müller, 2021), where we examined the moisture flux anomalies in the area of extra high upward vertical velocity. Results showed that these moisture flux anomalies might be a suitable indicator of EPEs, especially events with dominating northern moisture flux (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, there were several EPEs with dominating western moisture flux (i.e. travelling from the west; Wf ), which occurred only from September to March (Gvoždíková and Müller, 2021) and mostly affected the western half of central Europe. However, the correspondence between western moisture flux anomalies and Wf EPEs was not as strong due to cases when high values of moisture flux from the west occurred due to extra high wind velocities despite rather small amounts of air moisture.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predictability of moisture flux anomalies indicating central European extreme precipitation events

Gvoždíková

Müller

2021

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Forecasting heavy precipitation has an important role in mitigating floods and associated hazards, but it remains one of the main challenges in operational meteorology. Our previous study confirmed the close connection between large‐scale extreme precipitation events and anomalous moisture fluxes in central Europe. In this study, we introduce a variable accounting for the accumulated ascending moisture flux, which could potentially support extreme precipitation event forecasts. The variable reflects the total amount of transported water vapour in combination with extra high upward vertical velocity, which are important factors required for extreme precipitation occurrence. Looking at ERA‐Interim forecasts, we aim to determine a practical predictability and forecast skill of accumulated ascending moisture flux and compare it with the forecast skill of precipitation. While the predictability of moisture flux itself is satisfactory, generally less accurate forecasts of the vertical velocity negatively affect the predictability of accumulated ascending moisture flux, especially in the case of summer precipitation events with prevailing northern moisture flux. Nevertheless, the forecast of the proposed variable was adequate and stable up to 6 days in advance in all cases of maximum events that produced major central European summer floods. There were no such stable forecasts for less extreme events or false‐alarm precipitation extremes. Thus, we hypothesize that the calculation of the accumulated ascending moisture flux from numerical weather prediction could be useful as a supporting tool in extreme precipitation warnings in central Europe.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 54%

Section: Study Area and Reference Precipitation Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Predictability of moisture flux anomalies indicating central European extreme precipitation events

Gvoždíková

Müller

2021

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Extreme precipitation events over the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity associated with Tibetan Plateau vortices

Lin

Yao

Guo

et al. 2022

Atmospheric Research

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Geoecological problems of agricultural environmental management in conditions of climatic fluctuations within the Voronezh forest-steppe

Mezhova,

Lugovskoy,

Chertkov

et al. 2024

E3S Web Conf.

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The article describes the rhythmicity of climatic processes in the European part of Russia. An analysis of short-period climate rhythmicity is carried out against the background of 1850 summer rhythms. A forecast of temperature and precipitation for the 21st century is given. A methodological approach to assessing various types of responses to changes in climate processes and their impact on agriculture in the region is suggested. At the same time, changes develop structurally mainly in 3 directions: irreversible, qualitative and reversible. The necessity of considering climatic fluctuations when creating landscape-adaptive agriculture in the Voronezh forest-steppe is proved. To increase the accuracy of forecasts, it is necessary to expand the base of regional climate monitoring and to conduct monitoring and scientific research on the response of agricultural crops to climate change. The calculations made allow identifying trends in temperature and precipitation changes for the period of the 21st century. The proposed methodological approach can be applied in regional agricultural environmental management.

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Moisture fluxes conducive to central European extreme precipitation events

Cited by 6 publications

References 26 publications

Predictability of moisture flux anomalies indicating central European extreme precipitation events

Predictability of moisture flux anomalies indicating central European extreme precipitation events

Extreme precipitation events over the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity associated with Tibetan Plateau vortices

Geoecological problems of agricultural environmental management in conditions of climatic fluctuations within the Voronezh forest-steppe

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