Wehrenberg et al [Nature 550 496 (2017)] used ultrafast in situ x-ray diffraction at the LCLS xray free-electron laser facility to measure large lattice rotations resulting from slip and deformation twinning in shock-compressed laser-driven [110] fibre textured tantalum polycrystal. We employ a crystal plasticity finite element method model, with slip kinetics based closely on the isotropic dislocation-based Livermore Multiscale Model [Barton et al., J. Appl. Phys. 109 (2011)], to analyse this experiment. We elucidate the link between the degree of lattice rotation and the kinetics of plasticity, demonstrating that a transition occurs at shock pressures of ∼27 GPa, between a regime of relatively slow kinetics, resulting in a balanced pattern of slip system activation and therefore relatively small net lattice rotation, and a regime of fast kinetics, due to the onset of nucleation, resulting in a lop-sided pattern of deformation-system activation and therefore large net lattice rotations. We demonstrate a good fit between this model and experimental x-ray diffraction data of lattice rotation, and show that this data is constraining of deformation kinetics.