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Return Explanatory Ability and Predictability of Non-Linear
Market ModelsChi-Hsiou Hung *
AbstractRecent literature supports the pricing of higher-order systematic co-moments of returns.This paper provides some support for the quadratic-market model that is consistent with the three-moment CAPM in explaining time-series returns of the winner and the smallest size portfolios. This study further uses three innovative methodologies in analysing the ability of the linear CAPM, the quadratic-and the cubic-market models in predicting one-periodahead returns on individual stocks, equally-and value-weighted portfolios of momentum, size and country sorts. The results are surprising but important that the higher-moment CAPM market models do not outperform the linear CAPM in the return predictability tests.JEL Classifications: G11, G12, G15