Monitoring the Daily Evolution and Extent of Snow Drought

Hatchett, Benjamin J.; Rhoades, Alan M.; McEvoy, Daniel J.

doi:10.5194/nhess-2021-193

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The ongoing "Millenium Drought" starting around 2000 in the southwestern U.S. [21] is likely the best analog for the level of stress and impacts a projected additionally drier and warmer future would bring to water resources, ecosystems, and society. Both the current situation and the projected scenario examined here highlight that infrastructure could benefit from retrofitting and new construction to enable operations supported by increasingly available real-time monitoring [56,57] and forecasting of atmospheric and land surface conditions [58][59][60] to more effectively capture, convey, and store [61,62] mountain-generated runoff. The water management implications of an earlier shift in peak flow timing (Figure 6) will be compounded by the fact that there could also be fewer, but more extreme [63][64][65] and warmer [52,[66][67][68] high-impact atmospheric river events, even amidst an extended drought [69].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline in Seasonal Snow During a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

Hatchett¹,

Rhoades²,

McEvoy³

2022

Preprint

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Snowpack loss in midlatitude mountains is ubiquitously projected by Earth system models, though the magnitudes, persistence and time horizons of decline vary. Using daily downscaled hydroclimate and snow projections we examine changes in snow seasonality across the U.S. Pacific Southwest region during a simulated severe 20-year dry spell in the 21st century (2051–2070) developed as part of the 4th California Climate Change Assessment to provide a "stress test" for water resources. Across California’s mountains, substantial declines (30–100% loss) in median peak annual snow water equivalent accompany changes in snow seasonality throughout the region compared to the historic period. We find 80% of historic seasonal snowpacks transition to ephemeral conditions. Subsetting empirical-statistical wildfire projections for California by snow seasonality transition regions indicates a two-to-four-fold increase in burned area, consistent with recent observations of high elevation wildfires following extended drought conditions. By analyzing six of the major California snow-fed river systems we demonstrate snowpack reductions and seasonality transitions result in concomitant declines in annual runoff (47-58% of historic values). The negative impacts to statewide water supply reliability by the projected dry spell will likely be magnified by changes in snowpack seasonality and increased wildfire activity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline in Seasonal Snow During a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

Hatchett¹,

Rhoades²,

McEvoy³

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…

Snowpacks play a crucial role in the mediation of atmospheric circulation and climate change through radiative and hydrological processes (Hatchett et al, 2021;Johnston et al, 2021;Yao et al, 2022). Particularly in the dry season, snowpacks act as natural water storage and are the main source of river runoff and groundwater recharge during late spring and early summer (Van Loon, 2015).

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confidence: 99%

Changes in China's Snow Droughts Characteristics From 1993 to 2019

Guan,

Liu,

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Snowpacks are natural water reservoirs providing a considerable amount of water for humans and ecosystems. However, current global snow products (e.g., ESA GlobSnow v3.0), lack high spatial resolution and regional calibrations necessary to capture the high heterogeneity of snow water equivalents (SWEs) in complex Asian mountainous terrains. Therefore, our understanding of snow drought characteristics in China remains limited. Herein, we used an improved SWE product calibrated specifically for China to explore the characteristics of snow droughts, delineated by a standardized SWE index (SWEI) between 1993 and 2019. Our analysis was focused over three main snow‐covered regions of China: Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), northern Xinjiang, Northeast China. Especially during the period from 1993 to 2010, we found that the SWEI increased significantly at rates of 0.022/yr (Northeast China), 0.017/yr (northern Xinjiang), and 0.011/yr (QTP) (p < 0.01, Mann‐Kendall trend test). Increased SWEI contributed to decreasing snow drought events across China, with an obvious short‐term characteristic, whilst area proportion of the identified 1‐month snow droughts was above 46.5% across three regions. Furthermore, we found that the occurrence of snow droughts was likely mediated by large‐scale atmospheric circulation, since increased water vapor transport caused a significant vapor flux convergence in cold seasons over three regions, especially in northern Xinjiang and Northeast China.

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