Montana gray wolf conservation and management plan : 2005 annual report

Sime, Carolyn A.; Asher, Val; Bradley, L.A.; Laudon, Kent; Ross, Mike; Trapp, J.; Atkinson, Mark A.; Handegard, L.; Steuber, John E.

doi:10.5962/bhl.title.55041

Cited by 8 publications

(15 citation statements)

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“…Our model, using demographic and pack size parameters from northwestern Montana, yielded a deterministic population growth rate of 1.23 compared to the observed growth rate of 1.22 in Montana (Sime et al ). The stochastic growth rate for the model that included immigration was 1.18 ± 0.01 and 1.13 ± 0.03 for simulations excluding immigration.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 72%

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A meta‐population model to predict occurrence and recovery of wolves

et al. 2015

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Wolves (Canis lupis) have been recolonizing Washington since 2008. In an effort to guide recovery and management decisions for wolves, we created a spatially explicit meta-population matrix model using vital rates based on empirical data from other states in the northwestern United States to estimate probability of occurrence, terminal extinction rates, and potential recovery time. We applied an existing habitat model for Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming to the Washington landscape to determine the extent of probable habitat. We then simulated an evenly distributed metapopulation based on average size of pack territories reported in central Idaho where average probability of occurrence exceeded 40%. Using the program RAMAS GIS, we created a female-only, stage matrix model with dispersal using population metrics from central Idaho and northwestern Montana. Model simulations that begin in 2009 suggest Washington should reach its recovery goals in approximately 12 years (2021). We used the model to project recovery timeframes and the risk of declining below recovery objectives if management scenarios are considered during recovery. This model is also intended to be a versatile and adaptive tool for managers to project potential carrying capacity and the minimum viable population in the future when locally derived empirical data become available as wolves recolonize Washington. The model framework can be easily adapted to guide management decisions of wolves in other states (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Wyoming) or countries and it can also provide a way to identify recovery thresholds (quasi-extinction) in other areas considered for recovery where no data are currently available. Ó

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 72%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

A meta‐population model to predict occurrence and recovery of wolves

et al. 2015

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“…181-191), which characterized an established population as one in which a wolf pair produces pups each year. Saint Mary had a low wolf population; although wolves have attempted to recolonize Saint Mary since the 1980s, no breeding pair or pack of wolves occurred there during our study (Sime et al 2010), but wolves were observed occasionally passing through the area. Waterton had a moderate and variable wolf population; wolves were confirmed denning in WLNP in 1992 (Fox and Van Tieghem 1994) and have denned in that park consistently since then.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 86%

“…We characterized the North Fork as having a high wolf population. During our study, North Fork wolves averaged 38 individuals in two packs that produced multiple litters (Sime et al 2010). These wolf population levels provided a very coarse measure of wolf activity in the three valleys.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of predation risk on elk (Cervus elaphus) landscape use in a wolf (Canis lupus) dominated system

2015

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Food acquisition and predation avoidance are key drivers of herbivore behaviour. We investigated the interaction of top-down (predator) and bottom-up (food, fire, thermal) effects by measuring the relationship between wolf (Canis lupus L., 1758) predation risk perceived by elk (Cervus elaphus L., 1758) and elk landscape use. We conducted fecal pellet and wolf scat surveys in three valleys with three wolf population levels (Saint Mary: low; Waterton: moderate; North Fork: high). In the North Fork, 90% of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) stands burned recently; the other valleys had no fire. We created predictive models of elk pellet density that incorporated bottom-up and top-down variables. All valleys had a high elk pellet density (≥10 per 100 m 2 ). Wolf scat density was similar where there was no fire, but one order of magnitude greater in burned areas. Elk pellet density was lower in the North Fork, a predation-related response. In all valleys, site-specific elk density declined as impediments to detecting or escaping wolves increased, and elk avoided aspen, except for North Fork unburned areas. Models that best predicted elk density contained bottom-up and top-down effects. At local scales, high predation risk negatively influence elk occurrence, suggesting that even with minimal wolf exposure elk avoid risky sites.Résumé : L'acquisition de nourriture et l'évitement de la prédation sont des moteurs clés du comportement des herbivores. Nous avons examiné l'interaction d'effets descendants (prédateur) et ascendants (nourriture, feu, chaleur) en mesurant le lien entre les risques de prédation par des loups (Canis lupus L., 1758) perçus par les wapitis (Cervus elaphus L., 1758) et l'utilisation du paysage par ces derniers. Nous avons effectué des levés de boulettes fécales et de fèces de loup dans trois vallées présentant des populations de loups de trois niveaux différents (Saint Mary : faible; Waterton : modérée; North Fork : élevée). Dans la vallée de la North Fork, 90 % des peuplements de trembles (Populus tremuloides Michx.) avaient brûlé récemment; aucun feu n'avait eu lieu dans les deux autres vallées. Nous avons créé des modèles prédictifs de la densité des boulettes de wapiti qui intègrent des variables ascendantes et descendantes. Toutes les vallées présentaient des densités de boulettes de wapiti élevées (≥10 par 100 m 2 ). La densité des fèces de loup était semblable là où il n'y avait pas eu de feu, mais d'un ordre de grandeur plus élevée dans les zones brûlées. La densité des boulettes de wapiti était plus faible dans la vallée de la North Fork, une réaction reliée à la prédation. Dans toutes les vallées, la densité de wapitis propres à des sites précis diminuait inversement à l'augmentation des entraves à la détection des loups ou à la fuite de ces derniers, et les wapitis évitaient les trembles, sauf dans les zones non brûlées de la North Fork. Les modèles qui prédisaient le mieux la densité des wapitis contenaient des effets ascendants et descendants. Aux échelles locales, un risque de...

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“…We estimated the number of wolves and approximate spatial distribution of each pack annually based on repeated aerial‐survey and ground monitoring efforts. We obtained data from Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks annual reports (http://fwp.mt.gov/fishAndWildlife/management/wolf/default.html; Sime et al , , , 2011), which represented minimum counts rather than true population estimates. We assumed all packs were detected because the area is intensively monitored for wolf activity by multiple agencies as well as landowners.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of elk density on elk aggregation patterns and exposure to brucellosis

Proffitt

Anderson

Lukacs³

et al. 2015

Jour. Wild. Mgmt.

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Increasing elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) populations across the West in response to increased demand for recreational and hunting opportunities may have negative, unintended consequences for disease transmission risk. Historically, free-ranging elk populations were not thought to sustain brucellosis (Brucella abortus), but recent studies suggest increasing elk densities may result in free-ranging elk serving as maintenance hosts for the disease. We evaluated spatial variation in elk density, group sizes, and adult female brucellosis seroprevalence in 39 elk management districts in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem using a Bayesian approach. We used modeled relationships to estimate the effects of reducing elk density by 10-90% on grouping patterns and seroprevalence rates. Reducing the density of the 3 highest density elk herds by 10%, 50%, and 90% was predicted to result in a 9%, 39%, and 59% decrease in mean group size, whereas reducing the density of the 3 lowest density elk herds was predicted to result in only a 0%, 0.7%, and 1.3% decrease in mean group size. We estimated seroprevalence rates of 0.01-0.27 across management districts, and seroprevalence increased as elk density increased. For the 7 of 39 management districts with >10% estimated seroprevalence, 10%, 50%, and 90% reductions in elk density resulted in predicted mean seroprevalence reductions of 2%, 7%, and 9%, respectively. For the 14 management districts with 1% estimated seroprevalence, 10%, 50%, and 90% reductions in elk density resulted in no measurable change in predicted mean seroprevalence. Our results suggest that elk density has an important effect on elk group sizes, which may influence the risk of brucellosis transmission and resultant exposure rates. Manipulating elk density may in turn affect brucellosis seroprevalence rates. However, debate among the diverse stakeholders involved in elk management on the effectiveness of reducing density, group sizes, and brucellosis exposure rates in elk, relative to other interests and objectives, is necessary prior to manipulation of elk density for this purpose. Ó 2015 The Wildlife Society.

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Montana gray wolf conservation and management plan : 2005 annual report

Abstract: alter habitat selection as an antipredator response to wolves. Ecology 86:3387-3397. Creel S & Winnie J 2005. Responses of elk herd size to fine-scale spatial and temporal variation in the risk of predation by wolves. Animal Behaviour 69:1181-1189.

Cited by 8 publications

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A meta‐population model to predict occurrence and recovery of wolves

A meta‐population model to predict occurrence and recovery of wolves

Effects of predation risk on elk (Cervus elaphus) landscape use in a wolf (Canis lupus) dominated system

Effects of elk density on elk aggregation patterns and exposure to brucellosis

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