Multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure, economic scenario analysis

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Vargas, Vanessa N

doi:10.1007/s10669-013-9432-y

Cited by 15 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Different to the risk paradigm, which is possible to measure given its use of probabilities and the size of potential loss, the resilience paradigm focuses on increasing the essential functionality of the system to absorb, adapt and recover from a disturbance, and is thus difficult to measure (Ridley 2017). Without possibility of the quantitative assessment of resilience, it has been claimed that monitoring and measuring is only possible in a qualitative way by using scenario analyses (Ehlen and Vargas 2013). Developing a method of assessing and measuring resilience applicable across various domains is a priority for various government and academic institutions with many ongoing research projects in the European Union, United States and Australia trying to provide a solution to this complex issue.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a Conceptualisation of Resilience in Security Studies

Keković¹,

Ninković²

2020

SPM

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Resilience has become a catchword in academic and professional discourse due to, implicit or explicit, acceptance of traditional approaches to prevention and preparation. Derived from the Latin verb “resilire” – to jump back, currently mainly signifies the ability or capacity of a system to bounce back to the equilibrium, pre-disturbance state, but also the ability of the system to face with and adapt to change. The use of the term has a long tradition in different scientific disciplines – psychology, sociology, ecology, engineering, management, whereas it entered the scope of security studies at the beginning of 21st century. In the last two decades the growing use of the concept and the various conceptualizations have been observed in both academic papers and in strategic and legislative documents. There is a vast literature in the subfields of security studies such as national security, emergency and disaster management, human and corporate security that problematizes this concept. In security studies there are broadly two strands of thought – one that observes resilience as a desired state of the system, be it a nation, a community or infrastructure, and another one that proposes resilience as a risk management strategy that can be used when dealing with events characterized with a high degree of uncertainty.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a Conceptualisation of Resilience in Security Studies

Keković¹,

Ninković²

2020

SPM

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“…Usually, multiple infrastructures are utilized by social or production systems, and a hazard often affects multiple infrastructures as well-illustrated by assessment of volcanic hazards by Wilson et al [115], which also states the importance of hazards' profile for a country. Moreover, interdependencies [1,2] between infrastructures may impact the recovery and resilience of a single infrastructure. Therefore, simulation-based search/optimization for a resilient infrastructure would benefit from a simultaneous search/optimization for multisectoral resilience; e.g., Najafi et al [52] described resilience improvement of power-water distribution system.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A failure in a power grid demonstrates a lack of engineered and engineering resilience to one or more hazards. A failure in a power grid may result in follow-up failures in the grid and other infrastructures [2]. Bo et al [3] mapped and summarized 23 major blackouts from 1965 to 2012, representing major failures in power grids.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Resilience Toolbox and Research Design for Black Sky Hazards to Power Grids

Borisoglebsky

Varga

2019

Complexity

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A structured collection of tools for engineering resilience and a research approach to improve the resilience of a power grid are described in this paper. The collection is organized by a two-dimensional array formed from typologies of power grid components and business processes. These two dimensions provide physical and operational outlooks, respectively, for a power grid. The approach for resilience research is based on building a simulation model of a power grid which utilizes a resilience assessment equation to assess baseline resilience to a hazards’ profile, then iteratively selects a subset of tools from the collection, and introduces these as interventions in the power grid simulation model. Calculating the difference in resilience associated with each subset supports multicriteria decision-making to find the most convenient subset of interventions for a power grid and hazards’ profile. Resilience is an emergent quality of a power grid system, and therefore resilience research and interventions must be system-driven. This paper outlines further research required prior to the practical application of this approach.

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“…It is also important to include social and economic dimensions in multi-hazard assessment methods [29]. China's disaster risk index was calculated for 31 provinces by using four types of factors: exposure (population exposed to earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow, and gale/hail), susceptibility (based on public infrastructure, income health, and economic status), coping capacity (based on governance, medical care, and material security), and adaptive capacity (related to future natural events) [30].…”

Section: Background On Multi-hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of Mamdani Fuzzy Algorithm for Multi-Hazard Susceptibility Assessment in a Developing Urban Settlement (Mamak, Ankara, Turkey)

Yanar

Kocaman

Gökçeoğlu

2020

IJGI

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Urban areas may be affected by multiple hazards, and integrated hazard susceptibility maps are needed for suitable site selection and planning. Furthermore, geological–geotechnical parameters, construction costs, and the spatial distribution of existing infrastructure should be taken into account for this purpose. Up-to-date land-use and land-cover (LULC) maps, as well as natural hazard susceptibility maps, can be frequently obtained from high-resolution satellite sensors. In this study, an integrated hazard susceptibility assessment was performed for a developing urban settlement (Mamak District of Ankara City, Turkey) considering landslide and flood potential. The flood susceptibility map of Ankara City was produced in a previous study using modified analytical hierarchical process (M-AHP) approach. The landslide susceptibility map was produced using the logistic regression technique in this study. Sentinel-2 images were employed for generating LULC data with the random forest classification method. Topographical derivatives obtained from a high-resolution digital elevation model and lithological parameters were employed for the production of landslide susceptibility maps. For the integrated hazard susceptibility assessment, the Mamdani fuzzy algorithm was considered, and the results are discussed in the present study. The results demonstrate that multi-hazard susceptibility assessment maps for urban planning can be obtained by combining a set of expert-based and ensemble learning methods.

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Multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure, economic scenario analysis

Cited by 15 publications

References 8 publications

Towards a Conceptualisation of Resilience in Security Studies

Towards a Conceptualisation of Resilience in Security Studies

A Resilience Toolbox and Research Design for Black Sky Hazards to Power Grids

Use of Mamdani Fuzzy Algorithm for Multi-Hazard Susceptibility Assessment in a Developing Urban Settlement (Mamak, Ankara, Turkey)

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