Multi-Stage Intelligent Smart Lockdown using SIR Model to Control COVID 19

Abstract

Corona Virus (COVID-19) is a contagious disease. Unless an effective vaccine is available, various techniques such as lockdown, social distancing, or business Standard operating procedures (SOPs) must be implemented. Lockdown is an effective technique for controlling the spread of the virus, but it severely affects the economy of developing countries. No single technique for controlling a pandemic situation has ever returned a promising result; therefore, using a combination of techniques would be best for controlling COVID-19. The South asian association of regional corporation (SAARC), region contains populous and developing countries that have a unique social-cultural lifestyle that entails a higher rate of contact and R 0 . The per-capita income and economic conditions of these countries are dismal in comparison with those of advanced countries. With no lockdown policy, their healthcare systems would be unable to provide support. In this study, an intelligent smart lockdown strategy is proposed, which is dynamically implemented with the Susceptible, infectious, or recovered (SIR) model by calculating the R 0 value after a certain number of days to implement multi-stage lockdowns with social distancing and SOPs for conducting business. Only 4.28% of the population of SAARC countries would be affected by COVID-19 after July 22, 2021 under the proposed strategy. Nearly 38% of the population would be affected after March 8, 2021 without lockdowns, whereas 18% of the population would be affected according to the simple SIR model after May 30, 2021. Furthermore, less than 1% of the population would be affected after April 13, 2021 under full lockdown and recession. Thus, the proposed strategy shows promising long-term results for controlling COVID-19 without negatively affecting the economy.

Analyzing sound COVID-19 policy responses in developing countries: the case study of Pakistan

“…Although smart lockdowns were identified by the NCOC, the approach itself exemplified multilevel governance (see Szarfenberg, 2015) in that it required the coordination of central, provincial, district, and municipal levels of coordination to close-off effectively targeted locations. Various authors have analyzed the merits of Pakistan's smart lockdown approach (Ghaffar et al, 2020;Ghaffar et al, 2021;Saeed et al, 2021) and rendered a positive verdict on the policy instrument. For example, Ghaffar et al highlight that the smart lockdown could "show long-term results needed for controlling COVID-19 without creating any major disturbance in the economy" (2020: 32), and various models point out the relative efficacy of the smart-lockdown approach in striking an adequate balance (Ghaffar et al, 2020), so long as they are targeted carefully and implemented effectively (Saeed et al, 2021).…”

An IoMT‐Enabled Smart Healthcare Model to Monitor Elderly People Using Machine Learning Technique

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