The crystallization
of methane hydrates via homogeneous nucleation under natural, moderate
conditions is of both industrial and scientific relevance, yet still
poorly understood. Predicting the nucleation rates at such conditions
is notoriously difficult due to high nucleation barriers, and requires,
besides an accurate molecular model, enhanced sampling. Here, we apply
the transition interface sampling technique, which efficiently computes
the exact rate of nucleation by generating ensembles of unbiased dynamical
trajectories crossing predefined interfaces located between the stable
states. Using an accurate atomistic force field and focusing on specific
conditions of 280 K and 500 bar, we compute for nucleation
directly into the sI crystal phase at a rate of ∼10
–17
nuclei per nanosecond per simulation volume or ∼10
2
nuclei per second per cm
3
, in agreement with consensus
estimates for nearby conditions. As this is most likely fortuitous,
we discuss the causes of the large differences between our results
and previous simulation studies. Our work shows that it is now possible
to compute rates for methane hydrates at moderate supersaturation,
without relying on any assumptions other than the force field.