Multidecadal Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and Wet-Season Precipitation in the Arabian Peninsula

Abstract

Multidecadal variations in the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arabian Peninsula rainfall are investigated using observed data for the last 60 years and various atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. The wet season in the Arabian Peninsula from November to April was considered. The 6-month averaged Arabian rainfall was negatively correlated with ENSO for an earlier 30-yr period from 1950 to 1979 and positively correlated to ENSO for a more recent period from 1981 to 2010. The multidecadal variations can be attributed to the variations in Indian Ocean SST anomalies accompanied by ENSO. In the early 30-yr period, ENSO accompanied relatively large SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean, whereas in the recent 30-yr period it accompanied relatively small SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean. The atmospheric anomalies in the Arabian region during ENSO are combined responses to the Pacific and Indian Ocean SST anomalies, which offset each other during ENSO. The recent El Niño events accompanied negative 200-hPa geopotential height (GH) anomalies over the Arabian region, mainly forced by the Pacific SST anomalies, resulting in an increase of precipitation over the region. In contrast, in the early 30-yr period, Indian Ocean SST anomalies played a dominant role in the atmospheric responses over the Arabian region during ENSO, and the negative GH anomalies and more precipitation over the Arabian region were mainly forced by the negative SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean, which appeared during La Niña. These observed findings are confirmed by various AGCM experiments.

Multidecadal Modulation of ENSO Teleconnection with Europe in Late Winter: Analysis of CMIP5 Models

“…This AMO-like evolution of the teleconnection is coherent with others observational studies (Mariotti et al 2002;Knippertz et al 2003). A nonstationary signature of ENSO in rainfall has also recently been detected in the nearby Arabian Peninsula (Kang et al 2015). These results have contributed to the growing evidence advocating for a nonstationary behavior of the ENSO-NAE link on time scales ranging from decadal to multidecadal .…”

ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

“…This period is the wet season for the peninsula, 4,5 during which ENSO modulates the rainfall. 2,6 On the other hand, during the boreal summer season the peninsula receives considerably less rainfall. 5 The summer rainfall over the peninsula is mainly an extension of the Sahel monsoon and is located over the mountain ranges along the Red Sea from Saudi Arabia to western Yemen.…”

Interannual rainfall variability and ECMWF‐Sys4‐based predictability over the Arabian Peninsula winter monsoon region

“…During the winter season, rainfall is highly variable and some of this variability is induced by a southward (northward) shift in the subtropical jet stream during the positive (negative) phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Niranjan Kumar and Ourada, ). In last 30 years, ENSO has shown a strong teleconnection with South Asian and Arabian rainfall (Yadav et al , ; Kang et al , ), which could also lead to better seasonal mean predictability of the regional rainfall. In the current study, we assessed the ENSO‐related rainfall predictability over the Arabian Peninsula by using a coupled‐model hindcast dataset.…”