Multiple hazards and paths to eruptions: A review of the volcanic system of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy)

Selva, Jacopo; Bonadonna, Costanza; Branca, Stefano; Astis, G. De; Gambino, Salvatore; Paonita, Antonio; Pistolesi, Marco; Ricci, T.; Sulpizio, Roberto; Tibaldi, Alessandro; Ricciardi, Antonio

doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103186

Cited by 46 publications

(93 citation statements)

References 147 publications

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“…For the Vulcanian scenario, the largest unstable volume was reached for an eruption duration of 18 months, while the subplinian deposits, which are characterised by a smaller cohesion, become more stable with thickness increase depending on rainfall intensity and slope angle (Baumann et al 2019). Given that a Vulcanian cycle has the highest probability of occurrence at this volcanic system (Selva et al 2020), in this study we consider the worst-case scenario identified by Baumann et al (2019) for the Vulcanian cycle (i.e. 18 months of eruption duration with the characteristics of the last cycle occurred on Vulcano in 1888-90).…”

Section: Lahar Source Volume Estimationmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Lahar Risk Assessment: the Case Study of Vulcano Island, Italy

Gattuso¹,

Bonadonna²,

Frischknecht³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Lahars are rapid flows composed of water and volcaniclastic sediments, which have the potential to impact residential buildings and critical infrastructure as well as to disrupt critical services, especially in absence of a hazard-based land-use planning. Their destructive power is mostly associated with their velocity (related to flow rheology and surrounding topography) and to their ability to bury buildings and structures (related to the deposit thickness). The distance reached by lahars depends on their volume, on sediments/water ratio, as well as on the overall characteristics of the path where they propagate. Here we present a novel strategy for the assessment of risk associated with lahar inundation related both to flow velocity and deposit thickness using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. First, a range of hazard scenarios has been identified that are related to the mobilization by intense rain events of tephra fallout deposited on the slopes of the La Fossa cone by a future Vulcanian eruption. Second, a numerical model has been used to identify the potential lahar impact areas on the northern sector of Vulcano, where both residential and touristic facilities are present. In this specific case we have used the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) model that provides information on both flow velocity and deposit thickness. Finally, exposure and vulnerability surveys were carried out in order to compile risk maps for both lahar-flow velocity and final lahar-deposit thickness. Our analyses show the importance of carrying out accurate and detailed risk assessments exploring a variety of initial conditions in order to best quantify the potential damage and identify suitable mitigation strategies.

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Section: Lahar Source Volume Estimationmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…It is also important to invest in better preparedness of the population in relation the whole range of volcanic hazard associated with La Fossa cone including secondary lahars (e.g. Selva et al 2020).…”

Section: Land-use Planning and Mitigation Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lahar Risk Assessment: the Case Study of Vulcano Island, Italy

Gattuso¹,

Bonadonna²,

Frischknecht³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Tsunamigenic volcanic events are diverse and they include both eruptive and non-eruptive triggering phenomena, such as underwater explosions, pyroclastic flows, lahars, slope failures, volcanic earthquakes, shock waves from large explosions, and caldera subsidence (Latter, 1981;Kienle et al, 1987;Begét et al, 2005;Day, 2015;Paris, 2015;Grezio et al, 2017). A large range of wave characteristics is typical for volcano tsunamis, even if most such sources are localized and generate mainly short-period waves with greater dispersion and limited far-field effects compared to earthquake-generated tsunamis (e.g., Yokoyama, 1987;Nomanbhoy and Satake, 1995;Le Méhauté and Wang, 1996;Choi et al, 2003;Watts and Waythomas, 2003;Bellotti et al, 2009;Maeno and Imamura, 2011;Ulvrova et al, 2016;Selva et al, 2019Selva et al, , 2020. However, tsunamis are among the farthest propagating volcanic perils, often generating regional impact (e.g., Krakatau, Stromboli, Ischia, etc., see for example Paris et al, 2014;Rosi et al, 2018;Selva et al, 2019;.…”

Section: Identified Gaps Variety Of Potential Volcanic Sources (V1)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since volcanic tsunami generation is so diverse, constraining recurrence rates for the different source types as eruptive phenomena (Walter et al, 2019), unrest episodes (Tinti et al, 1999;Selva et al, 2020), and triggered subaerial landslides (Selva et al, 2019) is difficult. The integration into a multi-source VPTHA is further complicated by the need for accounting for the complex interdependencies that may exist among the different source mechanisms.…”

Section: Difficulties In Constraining Recurrence Rates (V2)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

et al. 2021

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Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

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“…These waves propagate more efficiently, reaching transoceanic distances, and are, in first approximation, non dispersive. On the contrary, landslide and volcanic sources, even if they encompass a broad range of source size, mostly generate localized tsunamis dominated by short-period waves with greater dispersion and limited far-field effects compared to earthquake-generated tsunamis (e.g., [19,91,184,[222][223][224][225][226][227][228][229][230][231][232]). Large volcanic explosions (e.g., caldera forming eruptions) and oceanic impacts of large asteroids may produce huge waves for which non-linearity may play a significant role for hundreds or even thousand of kilometres [197], with significant dispersive behaviours [196].…”

Section: Tsunami Propagation and Inundation Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami risk management for crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources in Italy

et al. 2021

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Destructive tsunamis are most often generated by large earthquakes occurring at subduction interfaces, but also other “atypical” sources—defined as crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources altogether—may cause significant tsunami threats. Tsunamis may indeed be generated by different sources, such as earthquakes, submarine or coastal landslides, volcano-related phenomena, and atmospheric perturbations. The consideration of atypical sources is important worldwide, but it is especially prominent in complex tectonic settings such as the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, or the Indonesian archipelago. The recent disasters in Indonesia in 2018, caused by the Palu-Sulawesi magnitude Mw 7.5 crustal earthquake and by the collapse of the Anak-Krakatau volcano, recall the importance of such sources. Dealing with atypical sources represents a scientific, technical, and computational challenge, which depends on the capability of quantifying and managing uncertainty efficiently and of reducing it with accurate physical modelling. Here, we first introduce the general framework in which tsunami threats are treated, and then we review the current status and the expected future development of tsunami hazard quantifications and of the tsunami warning systems in Italy, with a specific focus on the treatment of atypical sources. In Italy, where the memory of historical atypical events like the 1908 Messina earthquake or the relatively recent 2002 Stromboli tsunami is still vivid, specific attention has been indeed dedicated to the progressive development of innovative strategies to deal with such atypical sources. More specifically, we review the (national) hazard analyses and their application for coastal planning, as well as the two operating tsunami warning systems: the national warning system for seismically generated tsunamis (SiAM), whose upstream component—the CAT-INGV—is also a Tsunami Service Provider of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) coordinated by the Intergovernmental Coordination Group established by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, and the local warning system for tsunamis generated by volcanic slides along the Sciara del Fuoco of Stromboli volcano. Finally, we review the state of knowledge about other potential tsunami sources that may generate significant tsunamis for the Italian coasts, but that are not presently considered in existing tsunami warning systems. This may be considered the first step towards their inclusion in the national tsunami hazard and warning programs.

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Multiple hazards and paths to eruptions: A review of the volcanic system of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy)

Cited by 46 publications

References 147 publications

Lahar Risk Assessment: the Case Study of Vulcano Island, Italy

Lahar Risk Assessment: the Case Study of Vulcano Island, Italy

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Tsunami risk management for crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources in Italy

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