Abstract. Boreal forest soils are globally an important sink for
methane (CH4), while these soils are also capable of emitting CH4 under favourable conditions. Soil wetness is a well-known driver of CH4
flux, and the wetness can be estimated with several terrain indices
developed for the purpose. The aim of this study was to quantify the spatial
variability of the forest floor CH4 flux with a topography-based
upscaling method connecting the flux with its driving factors. We conducted
spatially extensive forest floor CH4 flux and soil moisture
measurements, complemented by ground vegetation classification, in a boreal pine forest. We then modelled the soil moisture with a random forest model using digital-elevation-model-derived topographic indices, based on
which we upscaled the forest floor CH4 flux. The modelling was
performed for two seasons: May–July and August–October. Additionally, we
evaluated the number of flux measurement points needed to get an accurate
estimate of the flux at the whole study site merely by averaging. Our
results demonstrate high spatial heterogeneity in the forest floor CH4
flux resulting from the soil moisture variability as well as from the related ground vegetation. The mean measured CH4 flux at the sample
points was −5.07 µmol m−2 h−1 in May–July and −8.67 µmol m−2 h−1 in August–October, while the modelled flux
for the whole area was −7.42 and −9.91 µmol m−2 h−1 for
the two seasons, respectively. The spatial variability in the soil moisture
and consequently in the CH4 flux was higher in the early summer
(modelled range from −12.3 to 6.19 µmol m−2 h−1) compared
to the autumn period (range from −14.6 to −2.12 µmol m−2 h−1), and overall the CH4 uptake rate was higher in autumn
compared to early summer. In the early summer there were patches emitting
high amounts of CH4; however, these wet patches got drier and smaller in size towards the autumn, changing their dynamics to CH4 uptake. The
mean values of the measured and modelled CH4 fluxes for the sample point locations were similar, indicating that the model was able to reproduce the
results. For the whole site, upscaling predicted stronger CH4 uptake
compared to simply averaging over the sample points. The results highlight
the small-scale spatial variability of the boreal forest floor CH4
flux and the importance of soil chamber placement in order to obtain spatially representative CH4 flux results. To predict the CH4
fluxes over large areas more reliably, the locations of the sample points
should be selected based on the spatial variability of the driving
parameters, in addition to linking the measured fluxes with the parameters.